North Korea's Nuclear Armament Level as the Focus of Attention
Military Says "North Exaggerates," Ruling Party Lawmaker Urges "Different Thinking"
North Korea, which is pursuing diversification of its nuclear platforms, has recently sparked intense debate over the authenticity of the tactical nuclear warhead 'Hwasan-31' and the nuclear unmanned underwater attack vehicle it unveiled. Although our military authorities have not yet given a definitive answer regarding their authenticity, the political circles view that North Korea's level of nuclear armament has become considerably advanced, citing the fact that North Korea has often achieved military technological progress beyond our expectations.
On the 29th, Tae Yong-ho, a member of the People Power Party and former North Korean diplomat, said on KBS's 'Choi Kyung-young's Strongest Current Affairs' that regarding the tactical nuclear warhead revealed by North Korea, "Our Ministry of National Defense leans toward the possibility of fabrication. They evaluated it as somewhat exaggerated, but I think differently," adding, "I believe it is indeed a nuclear warhead."
The tactical nuclear warhead 'Hwasan-31' unveiled by the North even has a serial number inscribed, which can be interpreted as indicating that if it is not a mere model but an actual nuclear warhead, mass production and deployment in the field are imminent. The basis for Representative Tae's belief that the warhead is not fabricated lies in North Korea's system. He said, "Looking inside North Korea (society), tens of thousands of people are involved in developing, researching, producing, and managing nuclear weapons," adding, "If it were fake, trust in Kim Jong-un (General Secretary of the Workers' Party) would collapse." If the nuclear warhead were fake, the trust of officials in Kim Jong-un would break down, potentially destabilizing the regime.
He continued, "Given the characteristics of the North Korean regime, if this were fake, they would have to keep the fake (nuclear warheads) displayed and ask Kim Jong-un to 'act' accordingly. In the North Korean system, such a PD cannot have fake warheads displayed with officials standing beside them and have them perform such sincere acting."
There are also divided opinions regarding the authenticity of the nuclear unmanned underwater attack vehicle 'Haeil' that North Korea unveiled on the 24th. The North explained that this underwater attack vehicle causes a radioactive tsunami (nuclear tsunami) through an underwater nuclear explosion, destroying ships and ports, which is similar to Russia's 'Poseidon' developed and deployed in 2015.
Baek Seung-ju, a former Deputy Minister of National Defense and former People Power Party lawmaker, said on SBS's 'Kim Tae-hyun's Political Show,' "This is a considerably advanced technology, and I doubt whether Russia would have given it to North Korea within seven years amid various UN sanctions," adding, "When the Soviet Union collapsed, many Russian scientists entered North Korea at very low labor costs, but under Putin's regime, Russia has stabilized, so the claim that North Korea obtained Poseidon within seven years requires verification."
On the other hand, Kim Jong-dae, a former Justice Party lawmaker and foreign affairs expert, expressed concern that North Korea should not be underestimated, although he acknowledged the need for verification. He said, "One common mistake Western intelligence agencies have made so far is underestimating North Korea," citing, "For example, in 2014, when North Korea announced the launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the US Joint Chiefs of Staff vice chairman said, 'The video is manipulated; that can't be true,' but later, when a high-definition video was shown again, they changed their stance to 'It seems they did launch it.'"
He speculated that not only Russia but also Ukraine's missile technology might have influenced North Korea's technological development. Kim said, "Ukraine handed over the entire RD250 engine design, the Baekdusan engine, which has made North Korea a nuclear power today," and evaluated, "North Korea's weapon development characteristics are highly innovative and original."
The ruling party views North Korea's nuclear armament technology as having reached a considerable level. Kim Geun-sik, chairman of the People Power Party's Unification Committee, analyzed on BBS's 'Jeon Young-shin's Morning Journal,' "Looking at North Korea's overall intentions, it is no longer just a country developing nuclear weapons or conducting nuclear tests, but has entered a fully advanced and integrated nuclear-armed state," adding, "North Korea is now completing its nuclear-armed state at a serious level."
He said, "The underwater nuclear bomb called 'Haeil' that was reportedly launched this time, an unmanned nuclear bomb weapon, has been developed over 11 years," adding, "It has been confirmed that new nuclear weapons were developed even during the period of good inter-Korean relations under the Moon Jae-in administration in 2018, so we should now refrain from entering negotiations with vain expectations about the North."
The United States maintains its existing stance of 'denuclearization' even after North Korea's unveiling of the tactical nuclear warhead. John Kirby, White House NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications, stated, "Our desire to engage in unconditional talks with the North Korean regime to find diplomatic means to achieve verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has not changed."
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