[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Is the 7th Nuclear Test Being Announced?

North Korea Unveils 'Tactical Nuclear Warheads' for Cruise Missiles
Nuclear Tests Essential to Verify Warhead Power

North Korea's sudden unveiling of 'tactical nuclear warheads' mounted on short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles has sparked speculation that the 7th nuclear test for warhead miniaturization may be imminent. This is because nuclear testing is essential to verify the power of nuclear warheads.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 28th, North Korean state media announced that Chairman Kim Jong-un had directed the 'nuclear weaponization project' the previous day and revealed several types of actual tactical nuclear warheads. The released photos showed eight types of delivery systems (weapons) named 'Hwasan-31' tactical nuclear warheads. This is the first time that actual or model tactical nuclear warheads or photos have been disclosed.

The tactical nuclear warheads revealed that day are estimated to have a diameter of 40 to 50 cm and are overall painted in military green with only the front part painted red. It appears to be an attempt to boast progress in miniaturization to the extent that they can be mounted on the solid-fuel SRBMs frequently launched by North Korea since last year, such as the super-large multiple rocket launcher (KN-25), the North Korean version of ATACMS (KN-24), and the North Korean version of Iskander (KN-23).

The eight types of delivery systems presented on the panel in the photos released by North Korea are estimated to include the 600 mm super-large multiple rocket launcher, unmanned submarine Haesil, Hwasal-2 cruise missile, Hwasal-1 cruise missile, KN-24, and KN-25. In fact, on the left wall of Chairman Kim, the super-large multiple rocket launcher and KN-23 can be seen, suggesting that delivery systems capable of carrying these tactical nuclear warheads have been arranged.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, analyzed, "Since the diameter appears to be less than 500 mm, it seems to have been miniaturized for mounting on various weapon systems such as the super-large multiple rocket launcher."

If the tactical nuclear warheads revealed by North Korea that day are actually operational, it means that miniaturization has already been achieved to the extent that they can be mounted on the KN series SRBMs. If North Korea's claim of tactical nuclear warheads is true, considering the power of past nuclear tests and North Korea's technological advances, their power is estimated to be around 10 kilotons.

Some speculate that this sudden disclosure may indicate the 7th nuclear test, as North Korea previously revealed round and elongated (peanut-shaped) nuclear warhead models before the 5th and 6th nuclear tests. In 2016 and 2017, North Korea unveiled nuclear warheads presumed to be boosted fission and hydrogen bombs, respectively, and then conducted the 5th and 6th nuclear tests. On September 3, 2017, during the 6th nuclear test, the warhead was revealed in the morning, and the test was conducted a few hours later.

Until now, the military has assumed that North Korea had not miniaturized nuclear warheads enough to mount on SRBMs, only judging that there would be significant progress in miniaturization technology.

On the 23rd, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup appeared before the National Assembly's Defense Committee and said, "We do not currently believe that the tactical guided weapon systems recently mentioned by North Korea can be equipped with nuclear warheads, but South Korea and the U.S. are analyzing the possibilities."