[Post Korea-Japan Talks 日 Report]① Growing Doubts About 'Yoon Solution' in Japan... "Worries It Might Be Overturned"

Focus on Yoon's Interpretation... "Yoon, Weak Nationalism" Analysis
Initially Welcomed... However, Concerns of Reversal in the Next Administration

Following the recent South Korea-Japan summit, various interpretations have emerged among Japanese political circles and diplomatic experts regarding bilateral relations and Japan's interests. While there is a welcoming attitude within Japan toward the improvement of relations through this summit, concerns remain that the core issue of historical conflicts has not been fully resolved, leaving the possibility of renewed deterioration in relations still present. It is seen as an unstable reconciliation that could easily be overturned with future changes in either country's administration.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Curiosity About Yoon's Diplomatic 'Timing'

On the 6th, the Yoon Seok-yeol administration announced a solution in which a Korean foundation, rather than Japanese companies, would bear a significant portion of compensation in forced labor lawsuits. The plan involves a foundation under the Ministry of the Interior and Safety securing funds to make payments to victims who received final court rulings for compensation, effectively acting as a 'third-party payer' instead of Japanese companies.

The Japanese government immediately accepted this, followed by President Yoon's visit to Japan and the South Korea-Japan summit. At this meeting, both countries agreed to resume various channels, including strategic dialogues between diplomatic and economic authorities, with Japan agreeing to lift export restrictions and South Korea withdrawing its World Trade Organization (WTO) complaint.

Within Japan, the dominant analysis is that the rapid improvement in bilateral relations was largely influenced by the United States. Former House of Representatives Speaker Kono Yohei told the Mainichi Shimbun in an interview that the announcements surrounding the summit and subsequent follow-up measures were significantly influenced by the U.S. Kono described it as "the result of the U.S. urging leniency in the fraternal dispute between South Korea and Japan," while also calling it "a diplomatic achievement born from seeking a new bilateral relationship."

There was also analysis regarding President Yoon Seok-yeol's political tendencies. Professor Kimura Kan of Kobe University’s Department of International Cooperation told Japan's NNA news agency, "President Yoon is anti-communist and shows little interest in nationalism," citing as a typical example his failure to address historical issues toward Japan in his March 1st speech.

The unusually rapid pace of bilateral reconciliation is also thought to have been accelerated by South Korea's political situation. Professor Nishino Junya of Keio University told the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), "There were voices in South Korea saying the solution was being rushed," adding, "The reason for the haste is that South Korea has a general election in April next year. Therefore, the goal was set to resolve the issue by early this year."

Foreign Minister Park Jin is announcing a solution for compensation for forced labor victims during Japanese colonial rule on the 6th at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

Negative Public Opinion in South Korea... Concerns Over Possible Reversal

One particular concern in Japan is the unfavorable public opinion within South Korea regarding this announcement. Given the high likelihood that the agreement could be overturned with a change in government, there is a risk that relations could deteriorate again at any time.

A significant portion of the Japanese public also believes that resolving historical issues such as forced labor through this summit will be difficult. According to a poll conducted by Nikkei from the 24th to the 26th, 68% of respondents answered "No" to the question, "Do you think the forced labor issue will be resolved by the South Korean government's solution?"

Sakaguchi Hirohiko, Mainichi Shimbun’s Seoul correspondent, wrote in a column, "The South Korean government faces the challenge not only of coordinating with the Japanese government but also of persuading the plaintiffs to accept the solution," emphasizing that "how the plaintiffs evaluate and respond to the solution will be crucial."

Given the experience in 2017 when the Moon Jae-in administration dissolved the Reconciliation and Healing Foundation, citing that the comfort women agreement did not reflect the victims' opinions, there is a strong perception that the agreement could be reversed with a change in administration.

Some progressive Japanese media voices call for not ignoring historical issues and emphasize the need for direct reflection and apology. The Tokyo Shimbun stated, "Paying a significant amount on behalf of forced labor victims cannot serve as a pardon for what Japan did to the people of the Korean Peninsula," urging, "The Japanese government must not forget a humble attitude facing the past and should express its remorse and apology more clearly."

Expectations for Synergy in Security and Economic Fields

However, there are also positive evaluations that this summit could lead to broad synergy between the two countries in security and economic sectors. Above all, amid China's military and economic rise and North Korea's missile provocations, the need for trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan is increasingly emphasized.

The Yomiuri Shimbun editorial stated, "North Korea's threat has reached a level that cannot be overlooked, so it is essential for South Korea and Japan to recognize the difficult situation and for defense authorities to communicate."

Within Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, there were hopeful voices regarding President Yoon's expressed understanding of Japan's defense enhancement policy, suggesting that "shared strategic values" will be developed. Motegi Toshimitsu, Secretary-General, told the Yomiuri Shimbun in an interview, "South Korea understands Japan's policy to strengthen its defense capabilities," adding, "We expect not only improved South Korea-Japan relations but also strengthened ties with countries sharing the same values."

Additionally, there are forecasts that economic exchanges between South Korea and Japan will become more active due to improved relations. Abe Makoto, Senior Researcher at the Asia-Pacific Research Institute, told Nikkei, "With political risks dissipated, economic exchanges between the two countries will become more active," explaining, "Japan will expand its business related to South Korea, and South Korea will no longer feel the need to avoid Japan when sourcing products, so transactions between the two countries are expected to increase."