Newsweek Highlights Scenarios on Trump Indictment, Arrest, and Trial
Political Scientists Predict Trump Likely to Run Despite Guilty Verdict
Former U.S. President Donald Trump faces the possibility of being indicted over allegations of hush money related to a sexual misconduct scandal, prompting various scenarios to emerge.
On the 22nd (local time), the American news weekly Newsweek gathered opinions from political experts to highlight scenarios involving Trump's indictment, arrest, trial, conviction, and imprisonment. Earlier, Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election last year and has already begun his official campaign. He is currently under investigation for delivering a settlement payment to silence Stormy Daniels, a former actress, during the 2016 presidential election, and a criminal indictment by the New York District Attorney's Office is reportedly imminent.
Former President Trump denies all charges brought by the New York prosecutors, but if found guilty, he could face a prison sentence of up to four years. Political scientists predict that even a conviction would not prevent Trump from running for office. They also explain that there is no legal barrier to prevent Trump from running for president even if he is in prison.
David Bateman, a professor of public administration at Cornell University, said, "An indictment may affect election strategy, but it will not hinder the campaign itself," adding, "Given that Trump is not considered a flight risk and is charged with a non-violent crime, it is highly likely he will be tried without detention."
All possibilities remain open regarding the trial outcome. The trial is expected to take a long time, and the results are currently unknown. He may be acquitted, and even if convicted, it is uncertain whether he will actually serve time in prison.
Regarding this, Professor Bateman predicted, "Once the trial begins, the defendant must appear in court, making it difficult to participate directly in nationwide campaigning," but added, "However, campaigning through social media will not be affected."
The worst-case scenario for former President Trump is if the period of imprisonment following a guilty verdict overlaps with the campaign period for the Republican nomination.
Experts have offered various opinions on this. Paul Quirk, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia in Canada, said, "In that case, former President Trump might even deliver speeches to TV viewers from the prison yard."
Robert Singh, a political scientist at the University of London, pointed out, "While Trump's prison candidacy cannot be stopped, he would face significant obstacles such as being unable to attend campaign rallies and events or deliver speeches." He added, "Even if prison authorities allow online campaigning, it cannot compare to the influence of in-person events."
Additionally, political scientists expressed doubts about whether it would be possible to organize and operate a nationwide campaign while running from prison, whether his participation in candidate debates would be permitted, and whether he could gain voter sympathy through online campaigning.
Above all, experts unanimously agreed that public negative perception would be a bigger problem behind these practical difficulties.
Thomas Gift, founding director of the UCL (University College London) Center for American Politics, pointed out, "A former president campaigning from inside prison is such an absurd story." Professor Quirk also remarked, "If Trump runs from prison, the public will constantly be reminded of his crimes."
Furthermore, Professor Bateman suggested a scenario where, if former President Trump wins the election but is later convicted, political disputes could arise, and in the worst case, a constitutional crisis might occur.
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