[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea, What Is the Next Provocation After the ICBM?

President Yoon's Planned ICBM Launch During Japan Visit
Next Step for Demonstrating Nuclear Force Completion: SLBM

North Korea is escalating provocations by launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting the South Korea-Japan summit. There are observations that North Korea may launch ICBMs with extended range or submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) aimed at U.S. strategic weapons participating in the upcoming South Korea-U.S. joint exercise "Freedom Shield (FS)."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 17th, North Korea's Korean Central News Agency reported that "Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, supervised the launch training of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 'Hwasong-17' on-site, accompanied by his second daughter Kim Ju-ae." It also warned of additional provocations, stating that the ongoing South Korea-U.S. joint exercise until the 23rd would make them realize an irreversible threat.

The South Korean military assesses that the ICBM launched by North Korea the previous day did not use solid fuel. The military stated, "South Korea and the U.S. had identified the movement of the transporter erector launcher (TEL) and the liquid fuel injection process of the ICBM through intelligence assets and communication interception." Since North Korea used liquid fuel for the ICBM, which must be launched within a few days due to the characteristics of liquid fuel, it is speculated that the launch was a planned act targeting President Yoon's visit to Japan.

There are forecasts that North Korea's provocations will intensify. Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, "To complete the nuclear force emphasized by North Korea, it is highly likely that the next card will be launching an SLBM," adding, "They may launch the Pukguksong-3, which can actually be launched from a submarine, rather than the SLBMs under development (Pukguksong-4 and -5)." North Korea has been raising the level of provocations by launching a short-range ballistic missile (CRBM) on the 9th, a submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) on the 12th, and a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) on the 14th of this month.

It is highly likely that North Korea will cite South Korea-U.S.-Japan military cooperation as a justification for provocations. After the South Korea-Japan summit, the U.S. Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN-68, approximately 100,000 tons) will visit the Korean Peninsula to participate in South Korea-U.S.-Japan maritime exercises. Next month, the South Korea-U.S. summit will be held during President Yoon's state visit to the U.S., and a South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit is expected during the May G7 (Group of Seven) summit. There is speculation about the establishment of a 'South Korea-U.S.-Japan consultative body' for joint planning and execution of U.S. nuclear operations at this time.