Duel at 'Nowon Farm'? Ahn Cheol-soo and Lee Jun-seok, Tensions Before the General Election

Possibility of Kim Eun-hye Running in Bundang-gap for General Election
Will Ahn Cheol-soo Leave His District to Run in Nowon-byeong?
Potential 'Nomination Battle' Between Ahn Cheol-soo and Lee Jun-seok

The Nowon-byeong district in Seoul is a place where a big internal party showdown over nominations seems possible in the April 10th, 2024, 22nd general election. The contenders are Ahn Cheol-soo, a member of the People Power Party, and former party leader Lee Jun-seok, who are like 'dogs and wolves.' The question is whether the two will actually clash and who will receive the nomination.

Ahn’s position within the party has become unstable after his defeat in the recent People Power Party leadership election. Moreover, his raising of issues regarding the presidential office’s interference in the leadership race near the end has made his relationship with President Yoon Seok-youl ambiguous.

From Ahn’s perspective, who ultimately aims for the presidential election, a breakthrough to solidify his standing within the party is urgently needed. He must secure the nomination and win in the district in next year’s general election to gain momentum for his next presidential bid.

In April last year, Lee Jun-seok, then leader of the People Power Party (left), and Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People Party, shaking hands at the National Assembly communication office.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

After the presidential election last year, Ahn ran in the June by-election for the National Assembly in Bundang-gap, Seongnam, and was elected. This seat became vacant when Kim Eun-hye, the presidential office’s chief spokesperson, resigned to run for governor of Gyeonggi Province. However, there are talks in political circles that Kim might run again in Bundang-gap in next year’s general election. This increases the likelihood that Ahn will not receive the nomination for Bundang-gap.

Ahn’s original constituency is Nowon-byeong in Seoul. His ties to Bundang were not very strong. Furthermore, Bundang is a region with high support for conservative parties. Even if Ahn were nominated and elected in Bundang-gap, it would be difficult to expect a significant political effect to strengthen his position within the party.

If Kim runs in the general election, Ahn will have no choice but to consider running in his original district, Nowon-byeong, but former leader Lee Jun-seok is also eyeing Nowon-byeong. This sets the stage for a direct confrontation between the bitter rivals Ahn and Lee over the nomination for Nowon-byeong.

There is another reason why attention is focused on the showdown between the two. Ahn and Lee also faced off in Nowon-byeong during the April 2016 general election. At that time, Ahn, who was the leader of the People’s Party, won with 52.3%, defeating Lee, who ran under the Saenuri Party with 31.3%. Lee was a political newcomer, while Ahn was a presidential candidate-level figure who had sparked the 'Ahn Cheol-soo syndrome' in 2012, so the result was somewhat expected.

However, it is difficult to predict a landslide victory for Ahn in the 2024 general election. Lee has also raised his political stature, earning the title of 'youngest party leader' among political parties. Lee, whose hometown is Sanggye-dong, has deep ties to Nowon. He also served as the head of the Nowon-byeong party committee.

Who the People Power Party will nominate between the two is expected to be a key point to watch in next year’s general election. Currently, analyses suggest that Ahn is in a more favorable position than Lee, who is at odds with the presidential office and the party leadership.

However, Ahn is also involved in conflicts, such as filing a complaint against Kang Seung-gyu, the chief of civil society at the presidential office, over the interference controversy in the leadership election, so the future developments cannot be ruled out.

Regarding this, Jin Joong-kwon, a special professor at Kwangwoon University, speculated on June 9th on CBS Radio’s 'Park Jae-hong’s One-on-One Battle' that "(the party) will not give Ahn the Bundang-gap nomination and will send him to Nowon," adding, "They might consider a scenario to remove both Lee and Ahn simultaneously."

Of course, there is also the possibility that a person who does not receive the nomination might leave the party and run as an independent or establish a third party. However, since it is advantageous for both to run as members of the People Power Party to win, they are likely to focus their strategies on securing the party nomination.