February Nationwide First-Priority Average Subscription Competition Rate 4.8 to 1
Subscription Shortfall Rate Also Reduced to Half Compared to Previous Month
However, Clear Polarization by Complex
As the possibility of a soft landing in the real estate market is raised, attention is focused on whether March, considered the peak season for housing sales, will become a turning point that determines the scale of this year's sales market. Last month, the nationwide average competition rate for first-priority apartment subscriptions rose sharply, and from this month, the market threshold has been further lowered due to the relaxation of non-priority subscription regulations. However, some predict that, like the sales market, the subscription market will also experience a localized boom where demand concentrates only on certain complexes.
According to real estate platform company Zigbang on the 9th, the nationwide average competition rate for first-priority subscriptions last month was 4.8 to 1. Compared to the 0.3 to 1 rate in January, the atmosphere has completely changed. The first-priority subscription shortfall rate, which was 73.8% in January, also dropped to about half at 33.2% in February. The shortfall rate means the number of units with subscription shortfall divided by the total number of supply units.
However, subscription competition rates varied significantly by region and complex. This is interpreted as the effect of demand in provincial areas moving to the metropolitan area due to regulatory relaxation amid a continued transaction freeze. The Eco Delta City Prugio Rin in Gangdong-dong, Gangseo-gu, Busan recorded a first-priority subscription competition rate of 11.5 to 1 with no shortfall. Bokdae Xi The Sky in Bokdae-dong, Heungdeok-gu, Cheongju, Chungbuk recorded a competition rate of 8.1 to 1, and Guri Station Lotte Castle Signature in Inchang-dong, Guri-si, Gyeonggi-do recorded 7.3 to 1. On the other hand, Gwangju Sangmu Station Gold Class in Mareuk-dong, Seo-gu, Gwangju recorded a competition rate of 0.1 to 1 and a shortfall rate of 94.2%. The Sharp Arte in Juan-dong, Michuhol-gu, Incheon recorded a competition rate of 0.4 to 1 and a shortfall rate of 68%, and Suwon Seong Junghung S Class in Jidong, Paldal-gu, Suwon recorded a competition rate of 0.7 to 1 and a shortfall rate of 50%.
The market's attention is now focused on the subscription results in March. From this month, conditions for non-priority subscriptions and resale restrictions have been relaxed, opening the door for homeowners living in other regions to participate in sales in those areas. For example, multi-homeowners can now apply for subscriptions for unsold units.
However, polarization by complex is also clear in Seoul. According to Korea Real Estate Board's Subscription Home, the first-priority subscription result for Yeongdeungpo Xi Dignity in Yangpyeong-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu, recorded an average competition rate of 198.76 to 1, with 19,478 applicants for 98 units. The highest competition rate was 356.89 to 1. On the other hand, Deungchon Jiwin in Deungchon-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul, which held subscriptions on the same day, failed to close first-priority subscriptions. This complex recorded a competition rate of 1.28 to 1 with 104 applicants for 81 units. Three out of four unit types were undersubscribed and moved on to the second priority. Just as some areas in Seoul are showing signs of recovery with active sales transactions, the subscription market is also experiencing localized positive momentum.
Ham Young-jin, head of Zigbang Big Data Lab, said, "The number of subscription account holders decreased by 860,000 in seven months, significantly reducing subscription demand compared to last year," adding, "Polarization is occurring where demand concentrates mainly in areas that have overlapping factors such as remaining demand, excellent locational conditions, or no concerns about oversupply."
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