[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Provocation 'Imminent'... Next Month Yoon's State Visit to the US a Turning Point

Preparation Started from Late March After ROK-US Joint Exercises
Likely a Turning Point Marked by the ROK-US Summit

There are expectations that North Korea will begin military provocations following the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise ‘Freedom Shield.’ As North Korea has repeatedly expressed its wariness of the joint exercises and is building justification for provocations, analysis suggests that provocations are imminent. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) also forecasted that North Korea is likely to conduct large-scale exercises including nuclear forces soon and may launch a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and reconnaissance satellites.

According to Yoon Gun-young, the opposition party secretary of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee from the Democratic Party of Korea, the NIS reported during the committee’s briefing the previous day that "North Korea is likely to conduct large-scale combined nuclear and conventional exercises during March and April, when the South Korea-U.S. exercises and summits are scheduled, and may launch a new solid-fuel ICBM," adding, "there is also a possibility of a reconnaissance satellite launch in April under Kim Jong-un’s orders."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea has emphasized that the United Nations and the international community should urge South Korea and the U.S. to halt the joint exercises. If South Korea and the U.S. comply, North Korea is highly likely to claim that its military responses, such as ICBM test launches, constitute an exercise of ‘legitimate self-defense rights.’

The timing of provocations is expected to be after the completion of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises. It is anticipated that North Korea will begin full-scale military demonstrations after the conclusion of China’s largest annual political event, the ‘Lianghui’ (兩會), on the 13th of this month. In particular, with President Yoon Suk-yeol scheduled to visit the U.S. as a state guest at the end of April, and the South Korean government planning to use this opportunity to further strengthen the South Korea-U.S. alliance’s nuclear deterrence capabilities against North Korea, North Korea may launch an ICBM around this time.

Recently, North Korea introduced the remarks of Park Kyung-su, Deputy Director of the National Aerospace Development Administration, in an interview with the Korean Central News Agency, stating that satellite launch technology has been completed and that there are no issues under international law.

In May of last year, when President Joe Biden visited South Korea, North Korea also launched three ballistic missiles into the East Sea just four days after the South Korea-U.S. summit.

A government official stated, "North Korea has its own weapons testing schedule and needs, so it will likely use the period of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises as a justification for exercising self-defense rights to conduct tests," and predicted, "It is expected that strategic weapon-level tests will be conducted in connection with the March South Korea-Japan summit, the April South Korea-U.S. summit, or the May G7 summit in Hiroshima."