Military Prepares Countermeasures Against Possible North Korean Provocations Ahead of ROK-US Joint Exercises

Ahead of next week's South Korea-US joint exercise 'Freedom Shield' (FS), the military is reported to have completed preparations to respond to North Korea's violations of the September 19 military agreement.

Lee Seong-jun, Director of Public Affairs at the Joint Chiefs of Staff (right), and Isaac Taylor, Director of Public Affairs at the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, are bumping fists after shouting "We go together" at the joint briefing for the ROK-US '2023 Freedom Shield (FS)' combined exercise held on the morning of the 3rd at the Ministry of National Defense in Yongsan-gu, Seoul. / Photo by Yonhap News

On the 4th, Yonhap News reported a military source saying, "If North Korea fires (missiles or artillery) into our buffer zone, violating the September 19 military agreement, we are also prepared to fire into North Korea's buffer zone."

Last year, North Korea conducted artillery fire 13 times, including coastal artillery and multiple rocket launchers, into the maritime buffer zone, and in November last year, it violated the September 19 military agreement by launching missiles south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL). In response, our military sent warning messages through shows of force such as South Korea-US joint exercises.

However, recently the Ministry of National Defense changed its stance, indicating that it will not be the only side to comply while North Korea repeatedly violates the September 19 military agreement. In fact, when North Korea's drones infiltrated at the end of last year, our side responded by sending drones into North Korea.

Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop said at the National Assembly's Defense Committee at the end of last year, "The September 19 agreement is not something only we have to keep," adding, "I want to say that we will conduct offensive operations if necessary."

North Korea is highly likely to carry out intense provocations around the time of this FS exercise. This is because the theater-level live combined exercise, to which North Korea reacts extremely sensitively, is being revived, and strategic assets such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are also scheduled to be deployed.

In particular, this FS will, during the pre-crisis management exercise (CMX) phase, declare war and skip the first phase of defense and repulsion, proceeding directly to the second phase of counterattack and North Korea stabilization, which will be intensively conducted over 11 days. The scenario focuses more on recovering North Korea and overthrowing the North Korean regime rather than defense.

Regarding this, a military official said, "This year's FS has decided to focus on the second phase during the main exercise period following the pre-crisis management phase."

Meanwhile, Kim Yo-jong threatened in a statement released through state media last month, saying, "We are clearly aware that the movements of the US military's strategic strike means in the Korean Peninsula region have become active recently," and "If we judge that there is any direct or indirect concern, we will take corresponding measures."