"Belief That West Will Win If Political Fatigue Deepens"
"Possibility That Chinese Leadership Was Unaware of Reconnaissance Balloon"
William Burns, Director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), warned of the possibility of an escalation in the Ukraine war, stating that Russian President Vladimir Putin is overly confident of victory. Regarding the recently controversial Chinese reconnaissance balloon, he also pointed out that the Chinese leadership might not have been aware of the detailed matters.
On the 26th (local time), Director Burns shared his thoughts in an interview with CBS News, reflecting on his meeting last November with Sergey Naryshkin, Director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). He said, "President Putin believes he can buy time for himself, inflict pain on the Ukrainian people, weaken our European allies, and eventually political fatigue will set in," adding, "He is confident that as Western political fatigue grows, he will ultimately be able to claim victory."
He continued, "What President Joe Biden asked me at the time was to make it clear to Naryshkin, and through him to Putin, that if Russia chooses to use any nuclear weapons, there will be severe consequences," and stated, "I believe Naryshkin understood the seriousness of this issue, and Putin does as well."
Previously, Director Burns and Director Naryshkin met in Turkey last November to discuss the Ukraine war and nuclear security issues. This meeting was the highest-level encounter between the U.S. and Russia since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. While there was some hope it might lead to a breakthrough regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine, it ended with only the confirmation of differences between the two sides.
Subsequently, on the 21st, marking the first anniversary of the Ukraine war, President Putin announced Russia's suspension of participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the U.S., a move strongly condemned by President Biden as a "big mistake."
Meanwhile, Director Burns also addressed the recent incident involving the Chinese reconnaissance balloon that violated U.S. airspace and was shot down. He said, "I believe the Chinese leadership was certainly aware that they had launched such an asset and that it was an intelligence platform," but added, "Honestly, I cannot say what the Chinese leadership knew or when regarding the balloon's trajectory." He further explained, "The balloon carried many items that can be judged as reconnaissance platforms, and I believe it will provide a clearer picture of its purpose."
Additionally, Director Burns emphasized the seriousness of the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. He stated, "We need to take Xi Jinping's ambition to control Taiwan very seriously," but added, "That does not mean that military conflict is inevitable."
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