Political Realignment Debate Heats Up... Is a Second 'Bareunmiraedang' Emerging?

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The 'political realignment theory' proposed by lawyer Shin Pyeong, who is regarded as 'President Yoon Seok-yeol's mentor,' is heating up. Amid the 'Lee Jun-seok faction' causing a sensation at the People Power Party's convention, there is considerable dissatisfaction with leader Lee Jae-myung within the Democratic Party, leading to speculation that a second Bareunmirae Party composed of moderate lawmakers from both parties could emerge.

On the 23rd, People Power Party lawmaker Ha Tae-kyung said on YTN's 'News King Park Ji-hoon' that "This time, the arrest motion will be rejected, but there are many who think that the Lee Jae-myung leadership system should not continue," adding, "If he does not step down voluntarily, quite a few people who disagree will emerge. Then, those people might jump off the sinking ship," suggesting the possibility of a split within the Democratic Party.

Former Bareunmirae Party leader Sohn Hak-kyu is stepping onto the stage at a cafe in Yeouido, Seoul, on the 29th to announce his candidacy for the 20th presidential election. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

With Lee Jae-myung facing an arrest warrant, a vote on the arrest motion is expected in the National Assembly next week, and the Democratic Party is confident it will be rejected 100%. However, if this process repeats, dissatisfied lawmakers are expected to raise their voices.

Ha also explained that a split within the People Power Party is possible. He said, "At the moment, there is not much, but recently rumors have been circulating about 'President Yoon Seok-yeol inserting 50 prosecutors close to him' in relation to reckless candidate nominations," adding, "If such reckless actions proceed, some may rebel."

If some dissatisfied members of the Democratic Party and some unhappy with the People Power Party's nominations unite, a 'second Bareunmirae Party' could emerge. Although Ha is also a former Bareunmirae Party member, he merged with the Liberty Korea Party ahead of the 2020 general election. He said, "Some will leave our party and some will leave the Democratic Party, and they will probably merge," but added, "It is difficult to predict now, so we need to watch for a while."

Former National Intelligence Service Director Park Ji-won has also consistently predicted the formation of a new party centered around former leader Lee Jun-seok ahead of the general election. On the same day, on SBS's 'Kim Tae-hyun's Political Show,' he said, "I think a new party will emerge by early next year, around February or March. This is because President Yoon Seok-yeol is trying to create a faction called 'Yun Hae-gwan' (Yoon Seok-yeol's core associates) and leader Kim Ki-hyun to completely nominate prosecutors and his own people," adding, "If they face a brutal nomination cut, Lee Jun-seok and the Yoo Seung-min faction will leave."

Park's forecast appears to assume the scenario Ha referred to as a 'rumor'?the brutal nomination purge involving 'inserting 50 prosecutors'?actually occurs. He said, "If those people face a nomination massacre and form a new party, the conservative camp will split, and I think the Lee Jun-seok and Yoo Seung-min party will likely become the main conservative party." However, he viewed the possibility of the Democratic Party splitting into pro-Lee (친명) and anti-Lee (비명) factions as low. Park said, "The Democratic Party does not have the strength to split," citing the lack of a rallying point for the anti-Lee faction as the reason.

However, former National Assembly Secretary-General Yoo In-tae pointed out that voices of dissatisfaction with leader Lee still exist within the party. On the morning of the same day on CBS's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show,' he said, "I agree that the prosecution is somewhat ruthless. But fundamentally, many people think it was wrong for Lee to become the leader in the first place," adding, "He went to Gyeyang and got a badge, and although he had overwhelming support, after becoming leader, he bought some stocks or something, and seeing that, people are worried whether he can properly conduct the general election next year."

Meanwhile, there are voices questioning the credibility of the 'political realignment theory' proposed by lawyer Shin. Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo said on KBS's 'Choi Kyung-young's Strong Current Affairs,' "I think it is not worth reading at all because there are many who claim to be President Yoon's mentor," adding, "Mentors are people with rich political and state administration experience, but it is laughable for people with little political experience and no political background to claim to be mentors." Although he did not directly criticize the political realignment theory, considering that Shin's remarks caused a significant stir as 'President Yoon's mentor,' it can be interpreted that the political realignment theory is not something to pay much attention to.