[Asia Economy Reporter Yujin Cho] A Congressional Research Service (CRS) report has reaffirmed the U.S. government's projection that China will be prepared to successfully invade Taiwan by 2027. While highly evaluating Taiwan's military strength, the report also pointed out its limited budget, drawing attention to whether this will bolster discussions in the U.S. Congress to expand arms support funding for Taiwan.
In the report titled "Taiwan Political and Security Issues," published on the 17th (local time), CRS cited remarks from William Burns, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), stating, "Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the People's Liberation Army to be prepared to successfully invade Taiwan by 2027," but added, "This does not mean that President Xi has decided to invade Taiwan."
This reaffirms the U.S. government's assessment that the peak of the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be determined by whether President Xi secures a fourth term and coincides with the 100th anniversary of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in 2027.
The report pointed out that military tensions between China and Taiwan have escalated since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August last year, noting, "Many experts interpret the movements of the Chinese military as an attempt to undermine the confidence of the Taiwanese people."
The United States established diplomatic relations with China in 1979 and severed official ties with Taiwan, enacting the Taiwan Relations Act to provide a legal basis for supplying Taiwan with self-defense means, maintaining strategic ambiguity in managing relations between the two sides.
However, the report noted that recently, "some, including certain members of Congress, argue for abandoning strategic ambiguity to more clearly commit to Taiwan's defense," while "others emphasize maintaining strategic ambiguity to deter provocations by encouraging Taiwan to invest in its own defense."
It continued, "President Joe Biden has sent mixed messages regarding U.S. policy on Taiwan," pointing out that "since August 2021, President Biden has mentioned on four occasions that the U.S. would defend Taiwan, appearing to move toward abandoning strategic ambiguity."
Nonetheless, White House officials have reaffirmed that there has been no change in U.S. policy toward Taiwan, the report added.
The report also highlighted some disagreements between the U.S. and Taiwan regarding strategies to deter a Chinese invasion.
It stated, "The U.S. and Taiwan agree on maintaining asymmetric forces by leveraging the weaknesses of the Chinese military and Taiwan's natural advantages to deter a Chinese invasion," but "they do not always agree on specific implementation plans."
The report analyzed, "While the U.S. focuses on deterring amphibious invasions, some in Taiwan argue that this approach leaves vulnerabilities in the army if an invasion is imminent," adding, "Uncertainties about how the U.S. would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan fuel this debate."
Meanwhile, the report mentioned that "Taiwan's military strength is high, but its budget is limited," drawing attention to whether movements to expand military support for Taiwan, centered on the U.S. Congress, will spread.
Earlier, Republican Michael McCaul, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Mike Rogers, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, along with Senators Jim Risch and Roger Wicker, Republican ranking members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Armed Services Committee respectively, sent a letter to President Joe Biden on the 16th urging an expansion of military support for Taiwan.
They urged President Biden to increase the Department of State's Foreign Military Financing (FMF) budget for Taiwan in the 2024 budget proposal submitted to Congress. FMF is a program through which the U.S. government provides funds or loans to foreign governments to purchase U.S.-made weapons.
The lawmakers emphasized that the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes provisions to provide up to $2 billion annually in FMF funds to Taiwan for fiscal years 2023?2027, and authorizes an additional $1 billion in military support annually under presidential authority. They called for allocating more security assistance and training funds for Taiwan in the 2024 budget.
Referring to the recent incursion of reconnaissance balloons into U.S. airspace, the lawmakers argued, "The U.S. must act urgently to ensure it can defend itself and that its allies and partners have the capabilities needed to protect themselves from the Chinese Communist Party." They criticized, "The Biden administration has continued to fail to act even in this serious situation requiring urgent provision of weapons and equipment to Taiwan."
Accepting the tensions that support for Taiwan may cause with China, they emphasized, "We must use all available authorities to provide Taiwan with weapons and equipment to become a stronger and more capable partner, which will strengthen U.S. national and economic security."
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