[One Year Since Ukraine Invasion] ① The First 'Hybrid War' of the 21st Century Reaches a Turning Point

The Battlefield Environment Intensifies in Cyber Space Public Opinion Warfare
The World's First Oil Price Cap Implemented
Russia Prepares Large-Scale Offensive... Concerns Over Prolonged War

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] It has already been one year since the Ukraine war, which was expected to end within three days of its outbreak, began. Amid Russia’s unexpected difficulties as the world’s second-largest military power, both sides have continued trench warfare, making it difficult to find a breakthrough for a ceasefire.

In the new environment of ‘Hybrid Warfare,’ which involves not only conventional firepower battles centered on land, sea, and air forces but also information warfare in cyberspace, it has been confirmed that overwhelming conventional forces alone cannot guarantee victory. After suffering a complete defeat in the international information war, Russia has been subjected to high-intensity sanctions by the West as a war criminal state, leading to the unprecedented establishment of price caps on energy.

After a lull since last September, the war between the two countries is expected to resume with the arrival of spring, raising concerns that this conflict could continue for another two to three years, prolonging the war. [Related Article] 'One Year Since the Ukraine Invasion'

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

◆Russia’s Painful One-Year Record in the Ukraine War: "Half of Tank Forces Lost"

On the first anniversary of the Ukraine war, major foreign media outlets have been reporting extensively on the severe losses suffered by the Russian military.

According to the Associated Press on the 15th (local time), the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has estimated that Russia has lost about 40% of its attack tanks since the outbreak of the war. The IISS report stated, "Compared to before the war, Russia is estimated to have lost more than 38.5% of its battle tanks, decreasing from 2,927 to 1,800," and pointed out, "When limited to main tanks such as the latest T-72B3 introduced in 2013, the loss rate rises to 50%."

The Dutch military intelligence site Oryx also counted over 1,000 Russian tanks destroyed on the Ukrainian battlefield, of which 544 were captured by Ukrainian forces, 79 were damaged, and 65 were abandoned.

It is known that Russian casualties have already exceeded 100,000 since the war began, with recent daily death tolls rising sharply to between 800 and 1,000.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

◆Russia Defeated in International Information War: "Everywhere is a Battlefield"

Contrary to early expectations of an overwhelming Russian offensive, the Russian military’s poor performance is largely attributed to its failure in the information war.

When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 last year, most foreign media predicted that Ukraine would struggle to hold out for even three days. According to the Global Firepower index, a U.S. think tank that ranks military strength worldwide, Russia ranked 2nd while Ukraine was 22nd, showing a significant gap.

Especially, Russian state media such as TASS reported that Russia had gained air superiority over Ukraine within three hours of the war’s outbreak, leading to predictions that the war would end quickly. Even within the U.S., there were claims that military support for Ukraine, which seemed doomed to lose, was unnecessary.

Before the war, Russia circulated various fake news through social networking services (SNS). According to The New York Times (NYT), Russia created hundreds of online bot accounts on platforms like Twitter and Facebook to spread false information, claiming that the Ukrainian army was completely defeated early on and that the entire territory of Ukraine would fall within a week.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

However, the Ukrainian government countered Russia’s fake news by continuously updating frontline situations through the SNS platform Telegram, reporting that Ukrainian resistance was ongoing. Subsequently, President Volodymyr Zelensky posted a video from Kyiv emphasizing his determination to fight to the end, which completely changed international public opinion.

According to CNN, on February 26 last year, when Kyiv was on the verge of falling, President Zelensky walked around the city amid shelling with his close aides at night and posted a short video on his Telegram account saying, "I am still in Kyiv and will not leave."

Following this, support from the U.S. and the West intensified, and sanctions against Russia were discussed mainly by the U.S. and the European Union (EU). Having suffered a major defeat in the information war, Russia has since been recognized as a public enemy in the international community, expelled from the United Nations Human Rights Council, and excluded from sports events such as the Qatar World Cup, deepening its international isolation.

Experts analyze that unlike previous wars, in the Ukraine war, which strongly exhibits hybrid warfare characteristics, the information war in cyberspace centered on SNS has become the key factor determining victory or defeat. Teija Tiilikainen, director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, explained in an interview with the BBC, "There are now more ways than before to harm other countries without direct military action. Every space is a battlefield," adding, "Countries must strengthen their capabilities to respond to new hybrid warfare threats such as fake news on SNS and election interference."

◆Capital VS Resources: The First Appearance of Energy Price Caps

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Another notable feature of the Ukraine war is the unprecedented introduction of price caps on energy resources, marking a new form of broad economic sanctions.

According to CNBC, since December 5 last year, the European Union (EU) and the United States have implemented a price cap on Russian oil. As a result, a price ceiling of $60 per barrel has been applied to Russian crude oil until early July this year. Sales of Russian crude oil above this price are prohibited, reportedly reducing Russia’s oil export revenues by more than 30%. According to the EU, Russia is losing $160 million (about 205 billion KRW) daily.

The implementation of the Russian oil price cap is highly unusual because it was carried out by oil-consuming countries collectively, rather than by oil-producing countries within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+), which had traditionally set oil prices. Oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have not participated in sanctions against Russia and strongly oppose the price cap, escalating diplomatic friction between producers and consumers.

Another unprecedented aspect of the Ukraine war is the complete withdrawal of multinational corporations from the Russian market. Global brands such as Apple, Starbucks, and IKEA, as well as companies like Coca-Cola and McDonald’s, which had operated in enemy countries even during World War II and the Cold War, have all exited the Russian market.

According to Bloomberg, a Yale University research team found that within three months of the war’s outbreak, over 1,000 Western companies operating in Russia announced their withdrawal or business scale-down. Facing strong Western sanctions led by the U.S. and Europe and mounting criticism of Russia’s war crimes centered on SNS, multinational corporations chose to abandon the Russian market despite anticipating huge losses.

◆A War with No End in Sight: "Russia Preparing Large-Scale Offensive"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

With expectations that Russia will launch a large-scale offensive on the war’s first anniversary on the 24th, concerns are growing that the war may prolong for another two to three years.

Earlier on the 14th, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, after chairing the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting in Brussels, Belgium, said at a press conference, "We expect Ukraine to launch airstrikes against Russia sometime this spring," adding, "We know Russia still possesses a significant number of aircraft. We must do everything we can to support Ukraine’s air defense capabilities."

The Ukrainian authorities also reported that Russia has already concentrated more than 2,000 tanks and air power on key frontlines with Ukraine and are calling for rapid weapons support from various countries. Although the U.S. has pledged to provide 31 M-1 Abrams tanks and Germany and European countries have announced support of over 180 Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks, it remains uncertain whether these can be deployed before Russia’s offensive. Even with the fastest efforts, only about 50 tanks are expected to be delivered by the first half of this year.

Within Russia, there are also predictions that the war could last more than three years. On the 11th, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close aide to President Vladimir Putin and owner of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, said in an interview with a Russian military blogger, "It may take another one and a half to two years for the Russian military to fully control the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine," adding, "If the war’s goal is to occupy the entire area along the Dnipro River, it could take about three years."