[Reading Science] The Mystery of the Fall of the Ancient Hittite 'Steel Empire'

US Cornell University Research Team Discovers and Documents Evidence of a "Sudden 3-Year Mega-Drought"
"Likely Cause of Capital Destruction and Empire Collapse"

The ancient Hittite Empire, which conquered Asia Minor using the world's first iron weapons, once flourished to rival Egypt but left questions due to its sudden collapse for unknown reasons. Until now, it was only speculated that a combination of famine caused by drought and enemy invasions played a role. However, a group of archaeologists has recently attracted attention by confirming traces of a sudden three-year megadrought during that period.

An ancient tomb from the Hittite Empire period discovered in the Ankara region of Turkey. A research team from Cornell University in the United States analyzed ancient wood found in this tomb and confirmed that a continuous severe drought occurred for three years around the 1190s BCE. Photo by Cornell University website

A research team from Cornell University in the United States published a paper on this topic on the 8th in the international journal Nature. The Hittite Empire was formed around 1700?1200 BCE, centered on Hattusa in north-central Anatolia of Asia Minor, where modern-day Turkey and Syria are located. Notably, it was the first in the world to use iron weapons and chariots to rapidly conquer Asia Minor. However, around 1180 BCE, it suddenly disappeared from the stage of history, leaving many questions.

The research team analyzed the tree rings of ancient timbers excavated from archaeological sites and combined climate observation data to confirm that a three-year megadrought occurred in central Anatolia between 1198 and 1196 BCE, the period when the Hittite Empire collapsed. They concluded that this drought devastated Hattusa, the capital of the Hittite kingdom, and may have led to the collapse of the civilization itself. Specifically, they examined 23 tree ring samples from 18 ancient timbers excavated at the Gordion site, located 230 km west of Hattusa. These trees are estimated to have grown between 1775 and 748 BCE. The trees typically show very narrow ring spacing due to a sharp decrease in rainfall during spring and summer, which reduces growth. The research team used this characteristic to estimate the era of the megadrought. They also reviewed modern climate observation records from 1929 to 2009 measured around Gordion. The results showed that in this region, droughts severe enough to make barley or wheat cultivation difficult occurred frequently, with annual precipitation falling below 250 mm roughly every 15 years.

By synthesizing the ancient timber tree ring analysis and climate observation records, the research team concluded that a three-year consecutive megadrought occurred around the capital Hattusa between 1198 and 1196 BCE, which likely contributed to the sudden collapse of the great empire.

Analysis results of ancient wood from tombs of the ancient Hittite Empire by a research team at Cornell University, USA. Photo by Cornell University website

Of course, the Hittites had prepared for droughts by building reservoirs near cities. However, with enemy invasions coinciding, the megadrought lasting over two years reduced food supplies, delivering a fatal blow to the empire’s economy and politics, accelerating its collapse. Ultimately, unable to withstand the megadrought, the Hittites moved their capital from Hattusa to Tarhuntassa and then followed the path to extinction, according to archaeologists. The location of Tarhuntassa, the new capital chosen by the Hittites, has yet to be confirmed.

There are also counterarguments. Some say that no matter how severe a megadrought is, a two- to three-year drought alone cannot cause an empire to collapse. Furthermore, from this period onward, megadroughts continued for about 200 years across regions spanning Spain, the Mediterranean, Turkey, and India. It is argued that linking only the collapse of the Hittite Empire to drought lacks persuasiveness.