Academic Journal "Magnitude 7.0 or Higher Earthquake Within 3 Years"
Paper Title Trending on SNS
"Nothing New" Criticism Also Raised
Claims have been raised that a strong earthquake could occur in mainland China within a few years due to the impact of the T?rkiye earthquake.
"Strong earthquake within 3 years" sparks debate in Chinese academia
On the 12th (local time), Chinese media 'Global Times' cited a paper published in the authoritative Chinese academic journal 'Earthquake,' reporting that "a strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 to 8.0 could occur in China within three years following the T?rkiye and Syria earthquakes."
According to the paper, the Eurasian region accounts for more than 50% of the annual seismic energy release. When an earthquake of magnitude 8 or higher occurs, its seismic waves can spread to mainland China.
The paper emphasized, "There is a 10% chance that these results could be incorrect," and added, "This serves as an early warning indicating that the probability of a magnitude 7.0 to 8.0 earthquake occurring in China within the next three years could reach 90%."
After the news spread, fear reportedly grew among Chinese netizens. The title of the paper even became a top trending search term on Weibo (China's social networking service). Additionally, a magnitude 4.3 earthquake that occurred in Guangdong Province, China, at 10:41 a.m. on the 11th further heightened anxiety.
However, controversy has arisen among earthquake experts regarding the credibility of the paper's content.
Sun Suhong, a researcher at the China Earthquake Networks Center, told Global Times, "In the past 10 years, mainland China has experienced two strong earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher on average every three years," adding, "Regardless of where earthquakes occur worldwide, including T?rkiye, the likelihood of a magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquake occurring in China within three years is high. There is nothing new in this paper's content."
Aftershocks following strong earthquakes... T?rkiye also on edge
On the early morning of the 6th, a magnitude 7.8 strong earthquake struck T?rkiye and Syria, causing massive damage in both countries. As of the 12th, the cumulative death toll exceeded 33,000 (combined for T?rkiye and Syria), ranking as the sixth largest earthquake disaster in the past 20 years.
While a strong earthquake causes devastating damage, the aftershocks that follow are also very threatening. After a major earthquake, the Earth's crust readjusts, causing sporadic aftershocks that can occur anywhere along the seismic zone. These aftershocks can collapse vulnerable ground or infrastructure, leading to significant casualties.
There are also grim forecasts that multiple aftershocks could occur in T?rkiye and Syria, the epicenters of this earthquake.
On the 13th, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released three aftershock scenarios, indicating the possibility of additional aftershocks around magnitude 6.0 occurring within one week to one month. A magnitude 6.0 aftershock has already occurred near Karaman Mara? in T?rkiye.
The first scenario, considered very likely with a 90% probability, predicts no aftershocks exceeding magnitude 7.0 within the next month, with aftershocks between magnitude 5.0 and 6.0 gradually decreasing in frequency.
The second scenario involves one or more aftershocks larger than magnitude 7.0 but smaller than 7.8. However, this has only a 10% chance of occurring.
The final third scenario is the occurrence of an aftershock larger than the mainshock (magnitude 7.8). Although the probability is extremely low at 1%, if it were to happen, it could have a massive impact not only on T?rkiye and Syria, which have already suffered damage from the mainshock, but also on neighboring regions.
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