[Insight & Opinion] Another 'Unpopular' Contest in the U.S. Presidential Election

[Asia Economy] The recent Washington Post poll regarding the 2024 U.S. presidential election is noteworthy. This is because the approval ratings for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump as candidates from their respective parties were very low. Support for Biden's nomination within the Democratic Party was 31%, while support for Trump's nomination within the Republican Party was 44%. These are embarrassing figures for current and former presidents. However, as expected, Biden is likely to be the Democratic candidate, and Trump, who has already declared his candidacy, is likely to be nominated as the Republican candidate due to vote splitting among other candidates, just like in 2016. Ultimately, it will be a frustrating election where voters have to choose between two unpopular candidates, similar to the 2020 presidential election.

There have been quite a few popular figures in past U.S. presidential elections. In the 20th century, except for a few instances, winners were elected by large margins, and many succeeded in winning re-election. Most presidents who won a second term maintained high approval ratings until the end of their terms. The 21st century is different. We have already elected four presidents?George Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden?but the only one who won by a large margin was Barack Obama in 2008. Even he saw the margin narrow during his re-election. Bush and Trump secured a majority of delegates but there were cases where the losing candidate received more popular votes. Furthermore, the approval ratings of these presidents during their terms mostly did not exceed 50%, and even when they did, it was not for a long period.

Many experts in the U.S. believe that because the approval ratings of the Democratic and Republican parties are so close, each party can win elections by mobilizing their respective bases. Therefore, during election seasons, each party puts all efforts into securing their support base. However, the early polls this year tell a different story. The highest support, 41%, was for independents rather than either party. The Democratic and Republican parties each had 28%. Since 1988, the gap between the Democratic and Republican parties has narrowed, but the difference between independents and the two parties has grown since 2010. Now, simply leaning toward one of the two parties does not guarantee support.

The rising support for independents signals upcoming changes. Looking at U.S. history, periods where two political forces were evenly matched were generally short-lived, with the longest lasting about 20 years at the end of the 19th century. Not only the presidency but also Congress has usually been dominated by one party holding a majority for extended periods. This is called a majority party.

Although the balance between the two political forces has continued into the 21st century, it is unlikely to last much longer. The 2024 election, featuring the unpopular Biden and Trump, may extend this period, but if an attractive candidate emerges from either side, those currently identifying as independents are likely to shift their support accordingly. This seems highly probable for the 2028 election.

So, which side is more advantageous? At times like this, the largest voting bloc is the middle class, who prioritize livelihood over ideology such as conservatism or progressivism. They have long supported appropriate government intervention in livelihood issues while also worrying about taxes, showing a politically moderate tendency. Currently, the voices of passionate supporters of the Democratic and Republican parties are so loud that the voices of moderates seem less audible. However, as in the past, the side that manages livelihood well and leads effectively will become the majority party. When that happens, political conflicts in the U.S. will also be greatly alleviated.

Robert Fauzer, Former Professor at Seoul National University