Russia, Ukraine Large-Scale Offensive Expected... The Hidden Factor Is This

Ukraine's Infamous Muddy Conditions in Spring...

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Gyumin] As winter comes to an end, there are expectations that Russia's major offensive against Ukraine is imminent, but both countries' militaries are also expected to face the challenge of spring thaw mud.

On the 11th (local time), the frozen ground in Ukraine is expected to turn into mud that will slow the advance of troops and tanks once it begins to thaw, according to a report by the US CNBC network.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

There are separate terms in Russian and Ukrainian for the period when the snow melts in early spring or rain falls in late autumn, turning the ground into mud. In Russian, it is called 'Rasputitsa,' and in Ukrainian, 'Bezdorizha.'

The mud in this region is historically famous. Both Napoleon Bonaparte, who launched the Russian campaign in 1812, and Adolf Hitler, who invaded the Soviet Union in 1941 during World War II, faced significant difficulties due to the mud.

The UK Ministry of Defence also stated in an update on the situation in Ukraine on the 9th, "The role of weather in the Ukraine war remains significant," and predicted via Twitter, "Mobility is expected to be at its worst due to extreme mud in mid to late March."

It added, "It is likely that the leadership on both sides will not plan major offensives during this period," but also noted, "However, as seen when Russia began its invasion in late February 2022, political and operational opportunities may dispel such concerns."