Incomplete North Korea's Hwasong-17... Test Launch Soon

Reduced to Mars-15 size using solid fuel
Political events continue from this month, providing a pretext for military provocations

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea is expected to soon conduct a test launch of its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-17. At the military parade held on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army on the 8th, North Korea expressed its determination to complete the final design of the Hwasong-17 and soon begin mass production.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 10th, a government official said, "The Hwasong-17 revealed by North Korea appears to be a solid-fuel ICBM that is not yet fully developed, and they will conduct test launches to improve its completeness."

The size of the Hwasong-17 is similar to that of the Hwasong-15. The new solid-fuel Hwasong-17 was mounted on a 9-axle (9 wheel axles, 18 wheels) vehicle (TEL) on that day. Considering that the previously developed Hwasong-15 also has 9 axles, the Hwasong-17 is roughly the same size as the Hwasong-15 in appearance. Given that the existing liquid-fuel Hwasong-17 TEL had 22 wheels with 11 on each side, it seems that by switching to solid fuel, the size was reduced in the design.

Using solid fuel allows the missile to be simpler in structure, smaller, and lighter compared to liquid-fuel ICBMs. Solid-fuel missiles have superior rapid deployment and concealment capabilities compared to liquid-fuel missiles, making them among the weapons most feared by South Korea and U.S. authorities. Moreover, an ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland represents the highest level of threat.

At the forefront of the Hwasong-17 column is the '321' mobile launcher vehicle (TEL) awarded the hero title and first-class national medal by Chairman Kim Jong-un. This signifies the intention to use the Hwasong-17 as the main weapon aimed at the United States.

A large number of Hwasong-17 units appeared. The Hwasong-17, which first appeared at the military parade commemorating the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party on October 10, 2020, was deployed in 4 to 6 units, but this time at least 11 units have been identified. This emphasizes that mass production has begun.

However, North Korea still needs to conduct additional test launches to finalize the operational deployment of the Hwasong-17. Therefore, military provocations may continue around political events such as the birthday of former National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il (February 16). North Korea has also announced that it will complete preparations for its first military reconnaissance satellite by April 2023, signaling possible provocations under the pretext of satellite launches within April.

North Korea also showcased a tactical nuclear weapons unit aimed at South Korea during the parade. This unit displayed North Korea’s version of the Iskander (KN-23), a 4-launcher short-range surface-to-surface missile, a 4-launcher super-large multiple rocket launcher (KN-25), a 240mm-class multiple rocket launcher, 152mm self-propelled artillery, and new tanks. While the Hwasong-17 targets the United States, this simultaneously reveals a nuclear threat card aimed at South Korea.

According to Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 10th, Ankit Panda, a senior researcher and nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), said, "The new weapon that appeared at North Korea’s parade yesterday is likely a solid-fuel propelled intercontinental ballistic missile," adding, "They will conduct the first test launch of a solid-fuel ICBM within a few months."

On the same day, the Korean Central News Agency reported that North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un, while taking commemorative photos with parade participants, said, "The special nature of the Korean revolution, which must decisively suppress and pacify the increasingly brutal imperialist provocations by force, demands that our military become stronger at an unprecedented rapid pace compared to the past without being satisfied with today."