Fourth Day of Turkiye Disaster... 20,000 Dead "Worst in 84 Years"

The Worst in Turkish History
Likely to Surpass the 1939 Northeastern Earthquake Damage

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo Yujin] The death toll from the massive earthquake that struck T?rkiye (Turkey) and Syria surpassed 20,000 on the 9th (local time). With the 'golden time' for rescue efforts already passed and up to 200,000 citizens still trapped under the rubble of collapsed buildings, the number of fatalities is increasing exponentially. The damage caused by the worst earthquake in northeastern T?rkiye in 84 years is also expected to soon be exceeded.

According to AP News and others, T?rkiye's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) officially reported that the cumulative death toll on the fourth day after the earthquake reached 17,134. The death toll reported by Syrian authorities and rebel groups in the neighboring country rose to 3,162. The total number of deaths in both countries reached 20,296, surpassing 20,000.

This figure far exceeds the death toll of 18,500 during the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, making it the seventh deadliest earthquake of the 21st century.

It is also expected to be recorded as the deadliest earthquake in T?rkiye's history. The death toll has surpassed the approximately 17,000 deaths caused by the 1999 northwestern earthquake, and according to The New York Times (NYT), it is expected to soon exceed the damage caused by the December 27, 1939 earthquake in Erzincan Province in northeastern T?rkiye, which killed about 30,000 people. The magnitude of that earthquake was 7.8, the same as the recent one.

Earlier, the World Health Organization (WHO) predicted that the total death toll from this earthquake could exceed 20,000 in the worst-case scenario. Catherine Smallwood, Senior Emergency Planning Officer at WHO Europe, forecasted that the number of deaths and injuries would sharply increase from next week, but in reality, the death toll has already surpassed 20,000 this week.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated a 14% chance that the death toll from this earthquake could exceed 100,000. Obgun Ahmet, a leading earthquake scientist in T?rkiye, estimated that up to 200,000 citizens are trapped under collapsed buildings.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

The golden time of 72 hours has already passed since the first earthquake struck in the early morning of the 6th. Dr. Steven Godby, a natural disaster expert at Nottingham Trent University in the UK, pointed out, "The survival rate is 74% within 24 hours, but it drops sharply to 22% after 72 hours. By the fifth day, the survival rate is only 6%."

Currently, hundreds of thousands of people, including those buried and survivors, are engulfed in cold, hunger, and despair. Ilan Kelman, a disaster health professor at University College London (UCL), expressed concern that "in T?rkiye and Syria, due to subzero temperatures accompanied by snow and rain, people trapped under building debris are highly likely to die from hypothermia and other causes."

Although the golden time has passed, rescue teams on site have not given up hope. According to T?rkiye's state broadcaster TRT, at 3:05 p.m. that day, a 6-month-old baby was rescued in Adıyaman after being trapped under the rubble of a collapsed apartment for 82 hours. Earlier, a 2-year-old boy was rescued in Antakya after 79 hours, narrowly escaping death.

As of that day, Turkish authorities announced that more than 110,000 rescue personnel and over 5,500 heavy machinery units had been deployed to the earthquake-affected areas. A total of 6,479 overseas rescue workers dispatched from 56 countries are also intensifying rescue operations on site. South Korea’s emergency relief team, dispatched to assist T?rkiye earthquake victims, rescued five people on the first day of their operation.

Even Ukraine and Russia, despite being at war, have united in sending relief teams to T?rkiye and have begun rescue activities. AP News reported, "With many people still trapped under rubble and freezing temperatures, rescue teams are accelerating efforts to save more lives."

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

This earthquake caused widespread damage across 10 provinces in T?rkiye. With 6,444 buildings collapsed, even survivors are facing extreme conditions. Earthquake survivors who lost their homes are spending nights in cars and temporary tents amid subzero temperatures accompanied by snow and rain. The number of displaced people staying in temporary shelters has exceeded 750,000.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, warned, "Many survivors are currently staying outdoors in terrible conditions. If support does not keep pace with search and rescue operations, more people risk facing secondary disasters."

The economic shockwave caused by the earthquake is also expected to be significant. International credit rating agency Fitch estimated the economic loss from the T?rkiye earthquake at $4 billion (approximately 5 trillion KRW) and stated, "The amount may increase depending on future developments."