Showcasing Nuclear Force with Solid Fuel ICBM-Estimated Missile
Kim Jong Un Focuses on Boosting Military Morale Instead of External Messages
Kim Ju-ae on the Presidium... "Keeping Possibilities Open and Watching Closely"
[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] North Korea showcased a new strategic weapon, presumed to be a solid-fuel-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), at the 75th anniversary military parade of the Korean People's Army, demonstrating its nuclear capabilities. Chairman Kim Jong-un also attended the parade but is understood not to have delivered any messages directed at South Korea or the United States.
Notably, Kim Jong-un's daughter Kim Ju-ae appeared for the second consecutive day, drawing attention as she occupied the central seat on the presidium where the supreme leader reviews the troops. The Ministry of Unification, which had dismissed rumors of 'Kim Ju-ae as successor,' showed a subtle shift in stance by stating it would "keep all possibilities open."
Appearance of 'Solid-Fuel ICBM': "Even if a mock-up, it's not just bluff"
Korean Central News Agency released photos on the 9th of a new missile, presumed to be a solid-fuel ICBM, alongside the ICBM 'Hwasong-17' at a nighttime military parade held at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang.
The missile, presumed to be a new weapon, appears to be an improved version of the missile that appeared at the parade commemorating the 105th birthday (Day of the Sun) of President Kim Il-sung in April 2017. At that time, it was also presumed to be a solid-fuel ICBM, but the transporter erector launcher (TEL) carrying the missile changed from an 8-axle 16-wheel vehicle to a 9-axle 18-wheel vehicle. The diameter of the launch tube, which exceeds the length of the chassis, is evaluated to be similar.
Along with the new ICBM, tactical nuclear operation units were also mentioned. The agency boasted, "The powerful war deterrence and counterattack capabilities were displayed as the tactical nuclear operation unit companies marched with unstoppable momentum," adding, "At the heated parade ground, the revolutionary development of the Republic's defense power and our nation's greatest nuclear strike capability were demonstrated as intercontinental ballistic missile units appeared."
Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Graduate School for North Korean Studies analyzed, "What stands out in this parade is the tactical nuclear operation units and the new missile publicly displayed on a 9-axle TEL as a hidden card," adding, "Personally, I see it as a mock-up of a new ICBM-class missile using a solid-fuel engine." He further explained that since the Hwasong-17's TEL has 11 axles and the Hwasong-15 has 9 axles, the new missile is presumed to be of the Hwasong-15 class in appearance.
Professor Kim also emphasized that even if it is a mock-up, it cannot be dismissed as mere bluff. He said, "Looking at North Korea's recent new weapon unveiling methods, they often first reveal mock-ups at parades and then proceed to actual development and testing," adding, "It should be regarded not as a simple mock-up toy but as a weapon system under actual development. They will likely try to show something as early as within a year or by 2025, before the end of the 8th Party Congress period."
Military Encouragement Instead of External Messages: "Cautious Due to Food Shortage and China"
Chairman Kim Jong-un gave a speech to People's Army generals at a military foundation anniversary banquet before the parade, but during the main event, the parade itself, he appeared to only review the troops and military equipment without delivering a separate speech. Although there were expectations that the parade would be used to send aggressive messages toward South Korea and the U.S., the focus was on boosting military morale and consolidating internal loyalty.
Jung Sung-jang, head of the Unification Strategy Research Office at the Sejong Institute, inferred the influence of the "worsening food shortage." Jung said, "There are reports of mass starvation deaths in Kaesong, where rations continued even during the Arduous March period, which would be very shocking if true," adding, "North Korea is in desperate need of food and fertilizer support from China, so it is judged that they refrained from making statements that could escalate external tensions to maintain smooth cooperation."
In fact, North Korea reconvened the plenary session of the Party Central Committee, which is usually held once or twice a year, just two months after the last one. It announced that it would hold a plenary session later this month with the single agenda of "agriculture." Jung also added that one reason North Korea is cautious about China is the news that a large number of North Korean workers currently in China are expected to return home after Kim Jong-il's birthday on the 16th.
Kim Ju-ae Occupies Presidium Seat… Ministry of Unification "Will Keep Possibility of Successor Open"
Kim Juae takes the central seat on the presidium at the '75th Army Foundation Day' night military parade
Another highlight of this parade was the appearance of Kim Ju-ae, the daughter of Kim Jong-un. Korean Central News Agency reported the parade, stating, "Comrade Kim Jong-un arrived at the square with his beloved son and wife Ri Sol-ju," and "(Party Central Committee secretaries) took their seats in the VIP section with the respected son," employing flowery language that elevated her status from "beloved" to "respected."
Photos show Chairman Kim dressed in a black fedora and black coat reminiscent of President Kim Il-sung, while Kim Ju-ae, also wearing a black hat and coat, walked on the red carpet holding her father's hand. Kim's wife Ri Sol-ju appeared to step back about one pace, following the father and daughter, with senior officials clapping and following behind, as captured in the photos.
Notably, Kim Ju-ae occupied the central seat on the presidium where the supreme leader stands during the parade. Since first appearing at the Hwasong-17 ICBM launch site on November 18 last year, her status has steadily risen. Early on, some experts speculated about her as a successor, and even the U.S. Washington Post noted the "signal of a successor," highlighting North Korea's "promotion of Kim Ju-ae."
Jung Sung-jang of the Sejong Institute's Unification Strategy Office argued, "If she is mentioned before Ri Sol-ju in Rodong Sinmun's parade coverage, it means she has already surpassed Ri's status," adding, "Especially in photos with key military officials, Kim Ju-ae positioned in the center suggests she is to become the supreme commander leading the military in the future."
The government's assessment also appears to have changed. Earlier, the National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee in early last month that "it is better not to conclude that she is the successor," and the Ministry of Unification had drawn a line on discussing the succession structure. However, a Ministry of Unification official told reporters on the day, "Although it is early, we will keep all possibilities open and monitor the situation," indicating a subtle shift in position.
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