NextResearch Ahn 32.9%, Kim 25.6%
Realmeter Ahn 30.4%, Kim 45.3%
[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] With the People Power Party's March 8 leadership election just a month away, the support rates of the two leading candidates, Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Ki-hyun, are neck and neck.
On the 8th, polling firm Next Research, commissioned by SBS, conducted a survey from the 6th to 7th among 1,005 adults nationwide, including 311 People Power Party supporters (weighted to 309), to assess suitability for the next party leader. In a multi-candidate race, candidate Ahn (32.9%) led candidate Kim (25.6%) within the margin of error (±5.6 percentage points).
Following were candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn at 8.4%, candidate Yoon Sang-hyun at 3.5%, candidate Chun Ha-ram at 3.3%, and candidate Cho Kyung-tae at 1.6%.
In a hypothetical one-on-one race, Assemblyman Ahn received 45.1%, while Assemblyman Kim received 38.4%. 'No preferred candidate' and 'Don't know/No response' accounted for 10.4% and 5.2%, respectively.
On the morning of the 7th, candidates Kim Ki-hyun and Ahn Cheol-soo are seated at the People Power Party's 3rd party convention candidate vision presentation held at a broadcasting studio in Gangseo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News
This contrasts with the Realmeter poll released earlier that morning. The Realmeter survey showed candidate Kim leading candidate Ahn in one-on-one, multi-candidate races, and likelihood of winning.
According to Realmeter, commissioned by Media Tribune, from the 6th over two days, among 1,100 adults aged 18 and over nationwide, including 402 People Power Party supporters, candidate Kim (45.3%) led candidate Ahn (30.4%) by 14.9 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error. The difference between the two candidates is 14.9 percentage points, exceeding the margin of error (±4.9 percentage points).
In a hypothetical runoff one-on-one race, candidate Kim received 52.6% support, surpassing candidate Ahn's 39.3% outside the margin of error.
Candidate Kim also ranked first in the likelihood of winning the party leadership with 47.1%. Following were candidate Ahn at 37.5%, candidate Chun at 4.2%, candidate Hwang at 3.6%, and candidates Cho and Yoon at 1.8% each.
Meanwhile, the Next Research poll has a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level (±5.6 percentage points for People Power Party supporters). The response rate was 15.3%. The survey was conducted via telephone interviews, with 88% mobile and 12% landline calls.
For Realmeter, the sampling error is ±4.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 2.9%. The survey was conducted using random digit dialing (RDD) automated response system (ARS) via 90% mobile and 10% landline calls. For more detailed polling information, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
