Supporters of Na Kyung-won Already Reflected in Ahn Cheol-soo's Approval Ratings
"Anti-Yoon Hae-kwan Votes Absorbed by Ahn Cheol-soo"
"Kim Ki-hyun to Regain 1st Place in Next Week's Polls"
[Asia Economy Reporter Geum Bo-ryeong] Kim Ki-hyun, the People Power Party candidate for the March 8 party leadership election, has secured the support of former lawmaker Na Kyung-won after a 'three visits to the thatched cottage (三顧草廬)'. Thirteen days after Na declared she would not run for party leader amid pressure from the presidential office and the pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Seok-yeol) faction, she has effectively come out in support of Kim, making the 'Na factor' a renewed variable in this leadership race.
According to political circles on the 8th, in a recent poll targeting People Power Party supporters, Ahn Cheol-soo, who ranks first in suitability for party leader, saw his support surge sharply right after Na's announcement not to run last month.
Na Kyung-won’s Support Rate Drops to 16% Amid Conflict with 'Yoon's Mind'... Reflected in Ahn Cheol-soo’s Support After Withdrawal Announcement
Immediately after Na Kyung-won's withdrawal, a survey conducted by Realmeter commissioned by Media Tribune from the 25th to 26th of last month among 1,009 adults nationwide (422 People Power Party supporters) showed Kim Ki-hyun leading with 40.0% support for party leader, while Ahn Cheol-soo rose to 33.9%, up 16.7 percentage points from the previous survey (17.2%, 3rd place), ranking second. With Na out of the candidate pool, Ahn's support nearly doubled, leading to interpretations that a significant portion of Na's supporters shifted to Ahn.
Na Kyung-won was second with 25.3% in the previous survey. Until early this year, Na led the suitability ratings for party leader with around 30% support but saw her numbers drop after clashing with the presidential office over low birthrate policies. Some polls even showed her support falling into the 10% range. A YTN survey commissioned to Embrain Public from the 22nd to 23rd of last month among 784 People Power Party supporters showed Kim at 25.4%, Ahn at 22.3%, and Na at 16.9%.
Inside and outside the party, the prevailing view is that since Na Kyung-won's supporters' preferences have already been reflected in various polls following her withdrawal announcement, the recent 'de facto endorsement' is unlikely to significantly boost Kim Ki-hyun's support rate. Eom Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, "There will be almost no such (support rate increase) effect," adding, "Rather, President Yoon calling Ahn Cheol-soo an 'enemy of state governance' will have an impact."
Reasons Behind Ahn Cheol-soo’s Support: Unification Rationale, Expansion Among Moderate 2030 Generation, and Next Presidential Candidate
Director Eom cited three factors behind Ahn Cheol-soo’s strong support: the rationale for unifying with President Yoon as a presidential candidate, expansion among moderates and the 2030 generation, and his status as a next presidential contender. He also noted that the traditional regional dynamics of the party’s strongholds, Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) and Busan-Gyeongnam (PK), favor Ahn. Eom explained, "TK and PK have a subtle conflict where TK does not acknowledge PK," and added, "Although Ahn is from PK, he has been active in the Seoul metropolitan area, so Kim Ki-hyun, who is from PK, seems unable to gain an advantage in Daegu-Gyeongbuk."
Jang Sung-chul, director of the Sympathy and Debate Policy Center, said, "(The pro-Yoon faction) thinks it would be more advantageous if former lawmaker Na Kyung-won, who has a certain level of support among party members, throws her support behind someone," but added, "However, party members and People Power Party supporters have negative feelings toward the president and Yoon core officials, thinking 'Isn't this too much?' and those negative votes went to Ahn Cheol-soo. If Kim Ki-hyun tries to win through organization without resolving this, it will become risky."
Some predict that Na Kyung-won's endorsement could change the race, given the conservative party’s tradition of 'top-down' voting behavior in most internal elections. However, they point to candidate Chun Ha-ram, a close associate of former party leader Lee Jun-seok, as a variable. A party official said, "When the party leadership moves, members tend to follow en masse," but added, "If Chun runs to the end and gets over 10% support, the race will likely go to a runoff between the top two candidates. Since it is unlikely that Chun Ha-ram and Lee Jun-seok’s votes will go to Kim, Ahn will have the advantage." Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said, "If Na Kyung-won endorses Kim, his support will rise by at least 2-3 percentage points," and "Considering Ahn’s confrontation with the president, next week’s polls will likely show Kim reclaiming first place."
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