[Reading Science] The Turkey Earthquake Was Already Warned About a Year Ago

International Journal Nature Points Out
March Last Year METU Research Team Report 'Warning'
Old Buildings Clustered on Vulnerable Geological Structures 'Worst'

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] Amid the massive casualties and building collapses caused by the magnitude 7.8 earthquake in T?rkiye and Syria, it has been confirmed that local scientists in T?rkiye had already published a report last year warning of potential earthquake damage in the region. Additionally, it has been pointed out that despite the vulnerable geological structure, inadequate preparation due to war and insufficient safety regulations led to a greater disaster.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

On the 6th (local time), the international academic journal Nature reported that a research team from the Middle East Technical University (METU) in Ankara, T?rkiye, published a report containing such warnings in March of last year. The METU research team warned in the report that there was a possibility of an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher occurring in the Gaziantep region of T?rkiye, the epicenter of this earthquake damage, causing severe damage. This is because the area is located on a dangerous fault zone, most buildings are densely packed, and many are constructed with low-rise brick masonry structures that suffer significant shaking damage. Both the Turkish government and scholars had effectively foreseen this situation, but preparations were weak. Previously, in 1999, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck southeast of ?zmit, T?rkiye, resulting in over 17,000 deaths and 250,000 people losing their homes.

Following this, the Turkish government introduced new building codes to strengthen building design and materials in preparation for earthquakes and made insurance enrollment mandatory. However, old buildings constructed before 2000 remained in blind spots and suffered heavy damage in this recent strong earthquake.

The southeastern region of T?rkiye and northern Syria, where this earthquake occurred, is situated on the Anatolian fault zone where four tectonic plates meet. When an earthquake occurs on such a fault zone, the shallow depth of the epicenter inevitably results in greater destructive power transmitted to the surface. T?rkiye is part of the Trans-Asian seismic belt, a belt-shaped region where earthquakes frequently occur. This seismic belt extends from the Mediterranean through T?rkiye, Iran, the Himalayas, Myanmar, and eastward to Indonesia. Particularly, most of Turkey’s territory lies on the Anatolian fault zone, where four of the Earth's twelve tectonic plates?the Eurasian Plate, African Plate, Arabian Plate, and Indian Plate?collide, causing frequent earthquakes. The Anatolian fault zone, along with the Pacific Ring of Fire, is considered one of the most earthquake-prone areas worldwide.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

David Rothery, a professor of Earth Sciences at the Open University in the UK, told Nature, "The Anatolian Plate, which includes T?rkiye, Syria, and the Arab region, is colliding with the southern edge of the Eurasian Plate, pushing T?rkiye westward." He explained, "T?rkiye moves about 2 cm westward annually along the East Anatolian fault zone, and half of this fault zone was shaken in this earthquake."

The situation in Syria is even more severe. Due to the 12 years of civil war, building safety standards and regulations have become almost non-existent. This earthquake passed through the northwestern region centered on Aleppo and Idlib in Syria, causing numerous houses built with poor materials, designs, and construction during the war to collapse. Professor Rothery explained, "Buildings rebuilt after war damage in Syria were constructed using low-quality materials or 'whatever materials were available.' These buildings would have collapsed much more easily than houses built with even slightly higher costs."

Residents in the affected areas now have to fight not only aftershocks but also the cold weather. Ilan Kelman, a professor of disaster health at University College London, said, "In the coming weeks and months, aftershocks that could cause more damage may continue," adding, "There is a forecast for temperatures to drop below freezing locally, which means people trapped in debris or those who can be rescued might freeze to death."