[Global Issue+] 'F-16' Shaking the Atlantic Alliance... Reasons for US Opposition to Support

Difficult to Penetrate Russian Air Defense... Skeptical About US Support
Concerns Over Increased Logistics Transport Issues After Fighter Jet Support

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The issue of supporting Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets has drawn international attention as opinions diverge between the United States and European countries. Following Ukraine's successful acquisition of state-of-the-art tanks from the United States and Germany, it has launched a diplomatic campaign to secure fighter jet support. However, with the U.S. government expressing a negative stance on providing F-16s, concerns are rising that this could lead to diplomatic conflicts among Atlantic allies.

Countries opposing the provision of F-16 fighter jets, including the U.S. and the U.K., cite as their official reasons that such support would escalate the war further and that the jets would have limited effectiveness given Russia's dense air defense network. However, behind these stated reasons, it is analyzed that there is significant concern over the snowballing logistics support issues?such as missiles and fuel?that would arise if fighter jets were supplied.

The F-16 fighter jet operated by the Polish Air Force. [Image source=Reuters·Yonhap News]

U.S. and U.K. Clearly Oppose Support, Citing Limited Effectiveness

According to the Associated Press on the 4th (local time), senior Ukrainian officials are intensifying public lobbying efforts in the U.S. and European countries to build support for F-16 aid. However, the U.S. government continues to firmly oppose such support. Earlier, on the 30th of last month, U.S. President Joe Biden personally declared that the U.S. would not provide F-16s, maintaining a position that there are no plans to support this at all.

Nevertheless, Ukraine is not giving up. On the 1st, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov emphasized in an interview with U.S. NPR, "What is impossible today will absolutely be possible tomorrow," stressing that they will secure the support. This is interpreted as a reference to the U.S. government’s earlier refusal to provide M-1 Abrams tanks, which was later reversed to allow support.

Countries such as France and the Netherlands have stated they do not oppose providing support. They argue that if an official request for F-16s is made, there is no reason to block it. However, the U.S. and the U.K. strongly oppose it. Military experts from both countries also analyze that even if F-16s are provided, their effectiveness would not be as significant as expected.

According to the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces have currently installed S-300 and S-400 air defense systems throughout the occupied territories. These air defense networks are known to be impenetrable by F-16 fighter jets. The prevailing view is that reckless attacks would likely result in the jets being shot down.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

"Ukraine Seeks to Use F-16s as Leverage to Obtain Long-Range Air Defense Missiles"

Despite this, there is analysis that Ukraine’s strong demand for F-16 support is aimed at using the fighter jets as leverage to secure long-range air defense missile support, which is considered the most urgently needed aid.

CNN, citing senior officials from the Department of Defense and the White House, reported that "fighter jets do not actually rank high on Ukraine’s prioritized list of requested support," and that "Ukraine is instead hoping for long-range missiles, as well as more ammunition and air defense missiles."

Ukraine insists that long-range air defense missiles are necessary to defend against Russian air raids, but if such support is provided, there is a significant risk that Ukraine might launch attacks on missile bases within Russian territory. From the U.S. perspective, this would mean an escalation of conflict with Russia, which is why they are reluctant to provide such support.

The massive logistics support challenges that would arise if fighter jets themselves were supplied also remain a difficult problem to solve. If fighter jets are provided, accompanying support such as dispatching instructors for training, fuel, ammunition, and missiles must also be supplied. This would require overhauling the entire logistics support system connecting to Ukraine. As a result, voices in the U.S. opposing further support intensification are growing louder, and it is expected that disagreements will continue among NATO countries.