People Power Party Begins Candidate Registration for Party Leadership Election Today
Six Running for Party Leader... Cheon Ha-ram Weighs Registration
Nine Compete for One Youth Supreme Council Member Seat
[Asia Economy Reporters Hyunju Lee and Youngwon Kim] The lineup for the March 8 party convention to elect the next leader and supreme council members of the People Power Party has taken shape. From the early stages of the party leadership race, the so-called 'Yoonshim'?President Yoon Seok-yeol's intentions?has become the biggest variable as support rates among leading candidates fluctuated about a month before the convention.
The People Power Party will officially accept candidate registrations at the party headquarters from 9 a.m. on the 2nd until 5 p.m. on the 3rd. So far, seven candidates have officially declared their bids for party leader, but only four will advance to the final round. Eight candidates will be cut off from the supreme council member race, where four will be elected from over ten declared candidates. For the youth supreme council member position, which elects only one member (with four cutoffs), about ten candidates are expected to officially register.
Among the party leader candidates, lawmakers Kim Ki-hyun, Ahn Cheol-soo, Yoon Sang-hyun, and Cho Kyung-tae have officially declared their candidacies. Outside the National Assembly, lawyer Kang Shin-up and former party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn have thrown their hats in the ring. Cheon Ha-ram, former chairman of the Suncheon-gap party committee in Jeonnam, is in final consideration to run as a non-Yoon faction candidate.
In the party leader election, the 'two-strong structure' between Kim and Ahn has narrowed, with the biggest variable being 'Yoonshim' (President Yoon Seok-yeol's intentions). Until last month, Kim's support rate surged sharply due to the effect of Yoonshim marketing. Kim, supported by the 'Kim Jang Alliance (Kim Ki-hyun-Jang Je-won),' rose to first place in support rates, solidifying his status as the frontrunner, but the situation changed after former lawmaker Na Kyung-won announced she would not run.
Immediately after Na Kyung-won gave up her candidacy, a Realmeter survey commissioned by Media Tribune on the 25th-26th of last month targeting 422 People Power Party supporters (with a margin of error of ±4.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level) showed Kim with 40.0% support, ranking first, but Ahn's support rate nearly doubled, rising by 16.7 percentage points to 33.9%, closely trailing Kim.
In a recent survey, Ahn's support rate even surpassed Kim's. A binary contest survey conducted by Newsis, commissioned to polling firms Kukmin Research Group and Ace Research from the 28th to 30th of last month among 504 People Power Party supporters (95% confidence level, ±4.37% margin of error) showed 47.5% of respondents supporting Ahn, while Kim received 44%. Earlier, a Gallup Korea survey conducted on the 26th-27th of last month among 410 People Power Party supporters (95% confidence level, ±4.9% margin of error) showed Ahn leading Kim by 23.4 percentage points with 60.5% to 37.1%. It appears that Na's support base is shifting to Ahn, and the 'Yoonshim' that played a role in Na's withdrawal has ironically backfired.
The supreme council member election is also drawing attention as to whether Yoonshim will be a variable. Within the National Assembly, Park Sung-joong, Lee Man-hee, Lee Yong, and Tae Young-ho, along with former supreme council member Kim Jae-won, are classified as pro-Yoon faction. Former youth supreme council member Kim Yong-tae, former supreme council member Jung Mi-kyung, and lawmaker Heo Eun-ah are considered non-Yoon faction.
The youth supreme council member race, which elects one member, has attracted as many as nine candidates. Jang Ye-chan, chairman of the Youth Foundation who has declared himself as representing Yoonshim, is leading the race, including unifying with former Busan city party youth chairman Choi Ju-ho. Lawyer Kim Young-ho, a former aide to lawmaker Jang Je-won, Gyeonggi Province assembly member Lee Ki-in, who served as spokesperson for Yoo Seung-min's camp, and current proportional representative lawmaker Ji Sung-ho, who is running as a running mate with Ahn, are also key points to watch for entry into the supreme council. Far-right YouTuber Kim Se-ui, head of the Garosero Research Institute, Shin Hye-sik, head of Shinui Hansoo, and Min Young-sam, director of the Social Integration Strategy Institute and a regular panelist on the YouTube channel 'Ddadaboota,' have also declared their candidacies for the supreme council election.
Inside and outside the party, it is anticipated that the power structure within the party could change depending on the composition of the supreme council members. The People Power Party must establish an emergency response committee if four or more of the five elected supreme council members resign or the positions become vacant. Therefore, if the supreme council is composed mainly of pro-Yoon faction members, they can check a non-Yoon faction party leader. In the past, former Hanara Party leader Hong Jun-pyo and former leader Lee Jun-seok resigned from their leadership positions after all supreme council members resigned. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University's Department of Political Science and Diplomacy said, "The main concern of party members now is winning the general election. The first step to winning the general election is that the president's approval rating must not fall. Party members will think that they should elect supreme council members or party leaders who do not conflict with the president." He added, "Therefore, it is difficult for a pro-Yoon and anti-Yoon structure to form, and the race will inevitably revolve around who is more pro-Yoon."
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