[Politics That Day] Lee Jun-seok Dominates Ruling Party Support Poll... Party Member Vote Sees Na Kyung-won Overtake

Former Party Spokesperson on the Gap Between Opinion Polls and Party Member Votes
June 11 Party Convention: Party Member Votes Differed from Opinion Polls
Can We Trust the Opinion Polls for Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Ki-hyun?

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jung-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, On That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

Former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok is answering questions from student panelists during a special lecture titled "Asking the Path of Conservatism," hosted by the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy's "Korean New Conservatism" at Korea University’s Jeonggyeong Hall in Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, on the afternoon of February 22, 2022.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

The variable in the People Power Party (PPP) leadership race, where lawmakers Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Ki-hyun are forming a two-horse race, is the gap between party member voting and the ruling party supporter opinion polls.

Are the results of opinion polls conducted by media outlets together with polling agencies indicators that predict the outcome of the party convention? Currently, media outlets are analyzing the convention landscape based on opinion polls targeting ruling party supporters, not party members.

The major premise of this analysis is the assumption that the ruling party supporter opinion polls are similar to the party members’ opinions. If there is a significant difference between the ruling party supporter opinion poll results and the party member voting results, the current opinion poll results would only be indicators that cause confusion about the actual situation.

The People Power Party plans to elect its leadership 100% through party member voting instead of national opinion polls at the March convention. Ultimately, this means that the leadership will be chosen according to the will of the party members, especially those who participate in voting.

It is not easy to numerically gauge how similar the ruling party supporter opinion poll results are to the party member voting results. It is difficult to define it as ‘a certain percentage of similarity.’ However, future situations can be predicted based on past cases of the PPP convention.

The most recent PPP leadership race was the June 11, 2011 convention. It was the stage where the 30-something politician Lee Jun-seok spectacularly rose as the leader of a conservative party.

Did the opinion polls (ruling party supporters) related to the PPP convention at that time come out similar to the actual convention results?

Former Floor Leader of the Liberty Korea Party (now People Power Party), Na Kyung-won, is delivering a congratulatory speech at the People Power Party Seoul Branch 6.1 Local Election Winners' Meeting and Workshop held at the National Assembly on June 9, 2022. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

MBN and Maeil Business Newspaper commissioned R&Search to conduct an opinion poll over two days from June 1 to 2, 2021. The survey was conducted using 100% wireless automated response method.

The poll surveyed 1,044 people nationwide aged 18 and over (weighted to 1,000). The sampling error is ±3.0% at a 95% confidence level. Detailed information can be found at the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

The opinion poll was conducted about ten days before the PPP convention. The results of the question on who was suitable as the PPP leader showed candidate Lee Jun-seok at 46.7%, candidate Na Kyung-won at 16.8%, and candidate Joo Ho-young at 6.7%.

In the general public opinion poll, candidate Lee Jun-seok was about three times ahead of candidate Na Kyung-won. Interestingly, Lee Jun-seok showed even more overwhelming results among PPP supporters than in the general public poll.

Among respondents who answered that the PPP was their supporting party, 57.7% supported candidate Lee Jun-seok, while support for candidate Na Kyung-won was only 20.7%. Based on this opinion poll alone, it can be analyzed that candidate Lee Jun-seok’s support was more prominent among PPP supporters than among the general public.

However, the PPP convention results on June 11, 2021, were completely different.

Candidate Lee Jun-seok ranked first in the national opinion poll as expected, with an overwhelming support rate of 58.8%. But in the PPP party member voting, he came in second with 37.4%. Candidate Na Kyung-won won first place with 40.9% of the votes.

On January 15, 2023, at the Hannuri Town in Yangcheon-gu, Seoul, during the People Power Party's Seoul Yangcheon-gap party member meeting held at the National Assembly, Representative Kim Ki-hyun (right) and Representative Ahn Cheol-soo, who ran for party leader, are seated. [Image source=Yonhap News]

At that time, although candidate Lee Jun-seok lost to candidate Na Kyung-won in the party member voting, he ascended to the party leader position based on the overwhelming support rate in the national opinion poll.

Why did candidate Lee Jun-seok, who showed overwhelming superiority in the opinion polls targeting PPP supporters, lose in the actual party member voting? This is an important key to reading the actual landscape of the PPP convention where lawmakers Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Ki-hyun are competing.

PPP party members may have been more familiar with candidate Na Kyung-won, who has nearly 20 years of legislative experience, than with candidate Lee Jun-seok. Candidate Na Kyung-won also has extensive experience in major party positions, so she naturally has a wider contact surface with party members.

It is also possible to assume that opinion polls targeting PPP supporters do not properly reflect the party members’ voting intentions. If the gap is larger than expected, the convention results could be completely different from the opinion polls.

However, equating the Lee Jun-seok?Na Kyung-won case with the Ahn Cheol-soo?Kim Ki-hyun case is unreasonable. June 2021 and March 2023 inevitably differ in figures, dynamics, voter turnout, and timing.

Another variable to note is that many young people who supported Lee Jun-seok during his leadership have joined the PPP as party members. Their voting intentions could also be a variable that decides the March convention.

What level of gap will there be between opinion polls and party member voting in the March convention? Will the difference be enough to overturn the entire landscape? Or will the current trend in opinion polls directly lead to the convention results? This is an interesting point to watch in the PPP convention.