North Korea Likely to Hold Military Parade on 8th Next Month... Attention on New Strategic Weapons Appearance

Objects Covered with Camouflage Nets in Satellite Images... New Weapon Emerging?
One-Man Army Slogan, Armed Forces Day, and Kwangmyongsong Day Consecutive Anniversaries
Kim Jong-un's Bombshell Remarks Draw Attention... Possibility of 7th Nuclear Test Also Raised

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] North Korea is expected to hold a military parade on the 8th of next month. The military parade is an important event for North Korea to showcase its military power both domestically and internationally, and to strengthen regime cohesion. Attention is focused on whether new strategic weapons will appear at this event. There is also speculation that Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, who has not appeared since New Year's Day, might make a nuclear-related "bombshell statement," or that North Korea might conduct its 7th nuclear test around the time of the parade.

On the 25th, according to the National Intelligence Service, North Korea is expected to hold a military parade on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army on the 8th of next month.

At the year-end party plenary meeting last year, North Korea designated the South as an "enemy" and mentioned an exponential increase in nuclear warheads in its report, showing a focus on strengthening its defense capabilities. Also, since the founding anniversary of the Korean People's Army, called "Geon-gun-jeol," marks a "regular anniversary" (a milestone year every 5 years), there is a strong possibility that this military parade will be more grandiose than usual.

Signs of Imminent North Korean Military Parade... Will New Strategic Weapons Appear?

Commercial satellite images released by 38 North, a U.S.-based North Korea specialist media, captured preparations for a military parade around Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang. [Image source=38 North]

There are successive signs that North Korea's military parade is imminent. Satellite images released on the 21st (local time) by the U.S. North Korea specialist media 38 North show hundreds of personnel conducting rehearsals with six tents at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang. Notably, the formation of the characters "2.8" was observed, suggesting the parade will be held on the 8th of next month.

Also, at Mirim Airfield located south of Pyongyang, about 700 trucks were mobilized, and an object measuring 27 meters in length and 6 meters in width, covered by camouflage nets, was identified. It is believed to be North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-17. Considering past precedents where new weapons were unveiled at military parades, it is also possible that this is a new strategic weapon yet to be revealed.

Previously, at the military parade in February 2018, the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 missiles were unveiled. At the parade commemorating the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army in April last year, a large number of strategic weapons, including new submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), were revealed.

Jung Sung-jang, head of the Unification Strategy Research Office at the Sejong Institute, said, "North Korea has always conducted test launches after unveiling models at military parades. It is quite possible that they will reveal not only an improved version of the Hwasong-17 ICBM, which they pledged to develop with solid fuel, but also the military reconnaissance satellite scheduled for launch in early April. They may also showcase a large number of missiles capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons."

North Korea Resumes 'Harsh Criticism'... Focus on External Messages and Nuclear Tests

North Korea Holds Military Parade for the 90th Anniversary of the Founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army [Image Source=Yonhap News]

There is also speculation that North Korea may issue new external messages or carry out significant provocations around the time of the military parade. Kim Jong-un, who has not appeared since New Year's Day, might make threatening remarks. Particularly, North Korean media, which had been quiet recently, have started to ramp up "anti-South criticism" around the Lunar New Year holiday, gradually raising tensions.

On this day, the external propaganda media Uri Minjokki-ri claimed that the South's plan for a meeting of defense ministers from UN Command member countries is "an attempt led by the U.S. to bring in multinational forces to crush our republic by force." During the Lunar New Year holiday, other propaganda outlets argued that the Ministry of Defense's mid-term defense plan announced last month is "preparation for a nuclear war to invade the North."

There is also speculation about the possibility of a "7th nuclear test" next month. April 6th marks the day when President Kim Il-sung visited the naval outpost at Daedeok Mountain in Kaesong in 1963 and proposed the slogan "One against a hundred." April 16th is the "Kwangmyongsong Day," the birthday of Kim Jong-il, leading to speculation that North Korea might carry out significant provocations beyond mere military demonstrations.

Jung Sung-jang said, "Kim Jong-un may make strong remarks supporting the 'strong-on-strong direct confrontation' struggle principle reiterated at the party plenary meeting. Especially since he mentioned the mass production of tactical nuclear weapons and an exponential increase in nuclear warheads, there is a high risk that the 7th nuclear test could be conducted to coincide with various anniversaries."

Meanwhile, military and intelligence authorities are tracking and monitoring personnel and vehicles identified around Pyongyang related to North Korea's military parade movements. Considering usual precedents, North Korea is expected to hold a midnight military parade starting at 0:00 on the day of the event and then release a recorded broadcast of the parade in the afternoon or the following day.