No More 'Withdrawal' This Time... Unification Variable Ahead of the Ruling Party's Leadership Election

Ahn, Withdrawn 4 Times Over 'Unification' Issue
Intense Race for Party Leadership...Candidate Unification as a Variable

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] As the March 8 People Power Party leadership election approaches, the competition among candidates for party leadership is intensifying, with 'candidate unification' emerging as a variable. In particular, attention is focused on whether Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo will unify. Previously, Assemblyman Ahn faced the stigma of 'another withdrawal' as he withdrew mid-race four times due to unification issues.

The People Power Party leadership election is now 50 days away. Former Assemblywoman Na Kyung-won, considered a leading contender for party leadership, has virtually decided to run, revealing the outline of the competitive landscape.

In this leadership election, a three-way race among former Assemblywoman Na, Assemblyman Kim Ki-hyun, and Assemblyman Ahn seems highly likely. According to a poll conducted by the public opinion research firm Every C&R on behalf of PoliNews and EveryNews from the 14th to 15th, among 417 People Power Party supporters aged 18 and over nationwide, support for party leader candidates was as follows: Assemblyman Kim at 29.2%, former Assemblywoman Na at 23.5%, and Assemblyman Ahn at 22.6%. Following them were former Assemblyman Yoo Seung-min at 9.0%, former Future United Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn at 6.2%, Assemblyman Cho Kyung-tae at 2.0%, and Assemblyman Yoon Sang-hyun at 1.4%.

Former lawmaker Na Kyung-won and People Power Party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo are talking at the People Power Party Seoul Metropolitan Party New Year's Meeting held at the People Power Party Central Party Office in Yeouido, Seoul, on the afternoon of the 11th. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

However, since this leadership election will introduce a runoff voting system for the first time, it is difficult to predict the outcome based on current support rates. If no candidate obtains a majority, a second vote will be held between the top two candidates, making it possible for the second-place candidate to overturn the first-place candidate through the runoff.

Candidate unification is also expected to be a variable. Recently, Assemblyman Ahn and Assemblyman Yoon, both representing constituencies in the Seoul metropolitan area, have promoted a 'metropolitan area alliance,' while support for former Assemblywoman Na, who faces opposition from the pro-Yoon faction, has strengthened, intensifying the alliance trend.

If the unification phase occurs, attention is likely to focus on Assemblyman Ahn. He has a particularly close history with unification issues. In the 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election, Assemblyman Ahn yielded the candidacy to then-lawyer Park Won-soon. In the 2012 presidential election, he withdrew mid-negotiation after failing to narrow differences with Moon Jae-in, the Democratic United Party candidate. In the April 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election, he unified with then-People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon through a public opinion poll primary.

Ahn Cheol-soo, a member of the People Power Party, is declaring his candidacy for party leader at the National Assembly on the 9th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

In the last presidential election, Assemblyman Ahn also withdrew mid-race due to unification. Although he repeatedly expressed his intention to complete the race, he ultimately agreed to a dramatic unification with candidate Yoon Seok-youl and withdrew from the presidential candidacy. Due to multiple mid-race withdrawals caused by unification issues, labels such as 'another withdrawal' and 'Gancheolsu' (a pun meaning 'hesitant Ahn Cheol-soo') have followed him.

However, on the 16th, Assemblyman Ahn appeared on YTN Radio's "News King with Park Ji-hoon" and firmly stated that there will be no unification in this leadership election. He said, "Unification was a topic when there were three parties, but now the runoff voting system has been introduced. The runoff voting system excludes the possibility of unification. Therefore, I can confidently say there will be no unification this time."

Meanwhile, the poll cited in the article was conducted from the 14th to 15th among 1,000 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide (including 417 People Power Party supporters). Virtual numbers provided by a telecommunications company were extracted, and the survey was conducted via automated response system (ARS), with weights applied using the SPSS program. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.