[70th Anniversary of the Armistice]③ "Swift Response to Hegemonic Competition... Focus on US Information and Communication Network Act and China's Scientific and Technological Self-Reliance"

Early Year Rise of Korean Peninsula Nuclear Issue
Strengthening ROK-US Alliance... Perceived as a Check on China
"Need Strategy to Leverage This for National Interest"

Editor's NoteIn 2023, North Korea started the new year with ballistic missile launches. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the armistice and the South Korea-US alliance, but the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is responding to North Korea's repeated military provocations, such as missile test launches and drone airspace intrusions, with a "peace through strength" approach characterized by "retaliation and reprisal." Amid ongoing strong confrontations between the two Koreas, this article analyzes new changes on the Korean Peninsula, intertwined with the delicate diplomatic situations between South Korea-China and the US-China.

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun]

"(Regarding North Korea's nuclear issue) The problem has become so serious that we might deploy tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea or even possess our own nuclear weapons."

(President Yoon Suk-yeol, Ministry of National Defense briefing on the 11th)

At the beginning of the year, the 'nuclear issue' is heating up the Korean Peninsula. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration, now in its second year, aims to lead a 'peace through strength' based on a solid South Korea-US alliance, but voices warn that this could lead to confrontation and severance. Some even mention the risk of nuclear war.

According to diplomatic and security authorities on the 12th, Robert Einhorn, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control at the US State Department, expressed concerns about the possibility of nuclear war in a paper presented on the 11th at the 11th Korea National Strategy Institute-Brookings Institution International Conference held at the Plaza Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul. Einhorn said, "North Korea is conducting various military provocations and has adopted a nuclear posture and doctrine aimed at early preemptive use of nuclear weapons," adding, "The risk of an unintended nuclear war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula due to misunderstandings or accidents is very high."

On the same day, President Yoon mentioned the possibility of South Korea possessing nuclear weapons during closing remarks at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of National Defense briefing held at the Blue House State Guest House. President Yoon said, "If that happens, it won't take long for our science and technology to develop them, and in the future, we could have them even sooner," adding, "However, it is always important to choose realistically feasible means." He emphasized that, for now, strengthening the US nuclear umbrella through South Korea-US cooperation is the best option.

Strengthening the South Korea-US Alliance Makes Active Chinese Role on North Korea Difficult

President Yoon Suk-yeol Photo by Yonhap News

The Yoon Suk-yeol administration has advocated strengthening the South Korea-US alliance since taking office. It also emphasized trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the US, and Japan, linked by the common threat of North Korea.

The problem is that as the South Korea-US alliance strengthens, relations with China have become strained, making it difficult to expect an 'active role' from China regarding North Korea. China and Russia have been abusing their veto power at the UN Security Council to prevent responses to North Korean provocations, while North Korea is exploiting the new Cold War dynamics to continuously raise military tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

The government's diplomatic stance, which had been based on 'Anmi Gyeongjung' (security with the US, economy with China), is widely regarded as no longer valid in the increasingly bloc-oriented international order. A representative example showing the limitations of 'Anmi Gyeongjung' is the Park Geun-hye administration's attendance at China's Victory Day parade, which the US did not attend, followed by a fallout with China over the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.

However, the South Korean government, which must prioritize 'security,' cannot afford to distance itself from the US, which holds the key to military and security, and lean toward China. The Moon Jae-in administration promised the so-called 'three no policies' opposing additional THAAD deployment, the South Korea-US-Japan military alliance, and the US missile defense system, but was criticized for submissive diplomacy by likening China to a 'high mountain peak' and South Korea to a 'small neighboring country.'

"China's Security-Economy Link... Need Flexibility to Protect National Interests"

Takehiro Funakoshi, Director-General of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau at the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (left), Kim Gun, Director-General for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Korea, and Sung Kim, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea at the U.S. Department of State, are posing for a commemorative photo before the trilateral senior-level talks on North Korea's nuclear issue held on June 3 last year at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Jongno-gu, Seoul. This face-to-face meeting of the senior representatives on North Korea's nuclear issue among Korea, the U.S., and Japan took place about four months after the February meeting in Honolulu, Hawaii, and was the first since the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Experts analyze that in diplomacy with China, it is necessary to maintain a 'national interest first' standard while strategically utilizing advantages South Korea holds in science, technology, and culture.

Jeong Young-tae, Chair Professor at Dongyang University, said, "Strengthening the South Korea-US alliance is essential and the foundation of foreign policy for security," adding, "We must first protect the value of security and then develop the ability to accept and mitigate friction factors with China that come with it. We cannot keep agonizing over choosing between the US and China forever."

He continued, "We need to carefully examine what purpose China currently has regarding the Korean Peninsula," and suggested, "Leveraging aspects where South Korea has an advantage, such as semiconductor technology, and the fact that China may seek to improve its relationship with the US through us, is key."

Joo Jae-woo, Director of the China Research Center at the Korea National Strategy Institute (and Professor at Kyung Hee University), pointed out, "A regret for the current government is that it has not quickly grasped its advantages and the needs of the counterpart country," citing, "For example, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was a matter foreseen in the US Congress, but our response was delayed." He added, "This year, the US revising the Information and Communications Network Act and China announcing a science and technology self-reliance policy in March are matters to watch closely," emphasizing the need to be prepared to respond swiftly.

North Korea's Dialogue Possibility Zero This Year... "Must Manage Situation Deterioration"

The task of unification strategy, which requires direct engagement with North Korea, is also challenging. Since the 'Hanoi no deal' between the North Korean and US leaders in 2019, inter-Korean relations have been deadlocked with little sign of improvement. Instead, North Korea conducted unprecedented military provocations last year, launching over 70 missiles in at least 33 instances.

North Korea's military demonstrations have effectively nullified the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement, which was considered the greatest achievement of the Moon Jae-in administration, and the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's denuclearization roadmap, the 'Bold Initiative,' has yet to take its first step. Although political and economic support was promised if North Korea engaged in denuclearization talks, the lack of specificity has led to criticism that there is little room for North Korea to respond positively.

Hong Min, Director of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, analyzed, "This year, there is a high possibility of a crisis overwhelmingly surpassing previous years," and advised, "Rather than aiming for a sudden turnaround in relations, the focus should be on crisis management to prevent further deterioration."

Hong paid attention to the recent pattern of messages from North Korea. Although it defines South Korea as an 'enemy,' its criticism of the US is somewhat moderated. He suggested that having the US take the lead or issuing joint South Korea-US messages toward North Korea could be a solution. Serving as a bridge between North Korea and the US could be a way to confirm deterrence against the US while satisfying North Korea's desire for direct negotiations.

Hong said, "While posture preparations including extended deterrence are important, it is also time to consider what messages to send to North Korea," advising, "In the case of the Bold Initiative, it should be clearly presented what North Korea can gain if it accepts the 'denuclearization conditions' and whether that is a practical proposal for North Korea."