[70th Anniversary of the Armistice] ① The Peace of 'Him' Grows Stronger

President Yoon Seok-yeol's Toughened North Korea Message
Strengthening Alliance Diplomacy Amid North Korea's Repeated Provocations
Fluctuations in North Korea Policy Across Administrations... North Korean Nuclear Tests Under Conservative Governments

Editor's NoteNorth Korea started the new year 2023 with ballistic missile launches. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the armistice and the ROK-US alliance, but in response to North Korea's repeated military provocations such as missile tests and drone airspace incursions, the Yoon Seok-yeol administration is countering with a "peace through strength" approach characterized by "retaliation and reprisal." Amid ongoing intense standoffs between the two Koreas, this article analyzes new changes on the Korean Peninsula intertwined with the subtle diplomatic situations between South Korea-China and the US-China.

[Asia Economy Reporters Bae Gyeong-hwan, Lee Ki-min] The "Armistice Agreement" was brought up at the very start of the new year. When President Yoon Seok-yeol demanded a strong military response to North Korea's successive military provocations, the Democratic Party launched an offensive, calling it a "violation of the Armistice Agreement." Both the ruling party and the presidential office as well as the Ministry of National Defense clarified that it was not a violation of the armistice. The Armistice Agreement was signed on July 27, 1953, by the United Nations Command, including the Republic of Korea Army, the Korean People's Army, and the Chinese People's Volunteer Army to cease hostilities in the Korean War that broke out on June 25, 1950. This year, the second year of the Yoon administration, marks the 70th anniversary of the armistice, but the situation on the Korean Peninsula is once again on the brink of a military crisis.

According to the presidential office on the 10th, the Yoon administration will fully embark on reforming the defense system, including fostering new defense industries such as drones and robots, establishing defense research hubs, and advancing missile defense systems. Since the government's North Korea policy direction has significantly changed from the past five years, the administration intends to first address vulnerable areas. This is the beginning of the "peace through strength" emphasized by President Yoon.

Why is President Yoon determined to 'not hesitate to fight'?

In his second year in office, President Yoon's tone on North Korea has become more hardline. On January 1, the first day of the new year, at the Yongsan Presidential Office's National Crisis Management Center, during a call with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kim Seung-gyeom and commanders of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, he said, "North Korea will continue provocations by enhancing its nuclear and missile threats and employing various symmetrical and asymmetrical means," and emphasized, "Our military must respond decisively to any provocation by the enemy with a determination not to hesitate to fight." This was just three days after his visit to the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) on December 29 last year, following North Korea's drone provocations, where he said, "To maintain peace, we must prepare overwhelmingly for war."

On January 4, President Yoon received a report on the "drone response strategy" from the National Security Office, Ministry of National Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff, and ADD during a closed meeting and instructed, "If North Korea again commits provocations by invading our territory, consider suspending the effectiveness of the September 19 Military Agreement."

The September 19 Military Agreement was a military agreement between South and North Korea signed on September 19, 2018, during the inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang between then-President Moon Jae-in and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. It primarily calls for a complete cessation of hostile acts between the two Koreas. This contrasts with President Yoon's early administration focus on military and economic diplomacy under the banners of "freedom" and "solidarity," and strengthening ROK-US-Japan military cooperation to pressure North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons and halt provocations.

In June last year, at the NATO summit of allied and partner countries, President Yoon stated, "North Korea's nuclear and missile programs are clear violations of UN Security Council resolutions and pose a serious challenge to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and the international community." In November, at the ASEAN+ROK-China-Japan summit, he said, "If North Korea launches another intercontinental ballistic missile and conducts a seventh nuclear test, the international community must respond firmly with one voice," expressing a principled stance similar to previous presidents.

Following his inaugural speech in May, in his Liberation Day address in August, he extended an olive branch, saying, "If North Korea stops nuclear development and transitions to genuine denuclearization, we propose a bold plan to dramatically improve North Korea's economy and people's livelihoods in line with that stage."

This shift in President Yoon's North Korea messaging is analyzed to stem from the current situation where North Korea has conducted 40 missile provocations, fired artillery into maritime buffer zones, intruded into South Korean airspace with drones, and the possibility of a seventh nuclear test has been consistently raised.

Will the Bold Plan Fail?

As North Korea's provocations intensify and President Yoon's responses harden, there are concerns that the Yoon administration's Korean Peninsula peace roadmap, the "Bold Plan," might collapse. The government has begun legal reviews on whether loudspeaker broadcasts and leaflet drops toward North Korea can be conducted if the September 19 Military Agreement is suspended, creating a strong confrontation dynamic.

However, the presidential office maintains that the "Bold Plan" is separate according to the North Korea policy roadmap. It is interpreted that a hardline strategy by conservative governments or vague sunshine policies by progressive governments could instead encourage North Korea's development of asymmetric capabilities and increase provocations.

The Kim Dae-jung administration pursued the Sunshine Policy, which aimed to resolve denuclearization and inter-Korean exchanges through engagement, initiating the 1998 Kumgangsan tourism and the first inter-Korean summit in June 2000, creating a peaceful atmosphere, but it is also evaluated to have left blemishes such as the Second Battle of Yeonpyeong.

The Roh Moo-hyun administration continued the Sunshine Policy but fluctuated between cold and warm relations depending on the international environment, including North Korea-US relations. The Moon Jae-in administration also pursued dialogue over military responses, holding three inter-Korean summits. However, after the so-called "no deal" second North Korea-US summit in Hanoi in February 2019, a series of events followed, including forced repatriation of defectors, the destruction of the inter-Korean liaison office in 2020, the killing of a South Korean official in the West Sea, and intensified North Korean missile provocations.

Conservative governments have maintained a stance of "dialogue after denuclearization," which increased inter-Korean confrontation. From the second nuclear test in 2009 to the fifth nuclear test in 2016, this occurred under the Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations. Former President Lee Myung-bak's North Korea policy, "Denuclearization and Openness 3000," promised to help North Korean residents reach an income of $3,000 within ten years if North Korea gave up nuclear weapons, but inter-Korean relations worsened.

Since the "Denuclearization and Openness 3000" and the "Bold Plan" differ fundamentally in approach, the Yoon administration intends to maintain both. The "Bold Plan," first revealed by President Yoon in his Liberation Day speech last year, proposes that even before substantial denuclearization progresses, if North Korea shows sincerity, economic support measures will begin, and political stability can be guaranteed according to the nuclear abandonment process.

A senior presidential office official emphasized, "Peace and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, especially in North Korea policy, will involve necessary support not only for meaningful progress by North Korea but also for symbolic actions by North Korea. That remains our unchanging diplomatic vision."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This year, marking the 70th anniversary of the Armistice Agreement, the administration plans to accelerate alliance-strengthening diplomacy following last year. Notably, there is a growing atmosphere to also emphasize the 70th anniversary of the ROK-US alliance alongside the armistice.

President Yoon is expected to visit the United States in the first half of this year for a summit with US President Joe Biden. Since bilateral relations were elevated last year from a traditional military alliance to a global comprehensive strategic alliance encompassing economy and technology, if President Yoon visits the US, concrete measures to solidify the alliance between the two leaders are expected to be discussed.

The Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs plans to hold a ceremony on July 27 this year, marking the 70th anniversary of the Korean War Armistice Agreement, along with a meeting attended by heads of state from 22 participating countries in the UN Command.

While last year focused on "expanding diplomatic maneuvering" to gain consensus on North Korea's nuclear development and missile provocations, this year aims to deepen those efforts. Earlier, in June last year, President Yoon became the first South Korean president to attend the NATO summit of allied and partner countries. In his keynote speech at the 77th UN General Assembly in September, without mentioning "North Korea," he criticized "unilateral changes by force," "weapons of mass destruction including nuclear weapons," and "collective human rights violations," emphasizing the restoration of values such as "support for the international normative system" and "solidarity," thereby drawing attention to the Korean Peninsula issue.

During his November Southeast Asia tour for ASEAN and G20 attendance, he announced the Korean version of the Indo-Pacific strategy and the ROK-ASEAN solidarity plan and focused on strengthening cooperation through the ROK-US-Japan summit. The presidential office stated, "Deterrence comes from strength. The president's emphasis on strength is ultimately to prevent war," conveying the tone of the new year's North Korea policy.