[Asia Economy Reporter Byeon Seon-jin] As the COVID-19 wave subsides this winter, there is growing expectation that masks can be removed as some of the government's mask removal conditions have been partially met. The quarantine authorities see China’s COVID-19 situation and variant issues as potential variables for mask removal, yet there are also many opinions that daily life recovery should continue as is.
KCDC: "2 out of 4 mask removal conditions met"... Possible discussion by Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters
On the 9th, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KCDC) announced that as of the 23rd of last month, two out of the four ‘Indoor Mask Mandate Adjustment Evaluation Indicators’ set by the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH) were met. These indicators include ▲Stabilization of patient occurrence (weekly patients decreasing for 2 consecutive weeks) ▲Decrease in severe cases and deaths (weekly severe cases decreasing, weekly fatality rate below 0.10%) ▲Stable medical response capacity (50% availability of intensive care unit beds within 4 weeks) ▲Immunity acquisition in high-risk groups (vaccination rate of 50% for those aged 60 and above, 60% for infection-vulnerable facilities).
The quarantine authorities stated that if two or more indicators are met, the CDSCH will discuss whether to implement the first phase adjustment, changing the indoor mask mandate to a recommendation. The weekly number of new COVID-19 cases was 471,195 in the third week of December (December 18?24), 458,709 in the fourth week of December (December 25?31), and 414,673 in the first week of January (January 1?7), showing a decrease for two consecutive weeks. The availability rate of intensive care unit beds was 60.1% as of 5 p.m. on the 8th.
China’s COVID-19 Situation and Variants Are New Variables
There is a forecast that the timing for indoor mask removal “could be as early as after the Lunar New Year holiday” (Ji Young-mi, KCDC Director), but the spread of COVID-19 in China is emerging as a variable. The government has mandated polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing after entry for arrivals from China (from the 2nd) and requires a negative test certificate before entry (from the 5th). Ideally, the positive rate among short-term foreign visitors from China should significantly drop from the 5th, but it has sometimes increased. Their positive rate was 19.7% on the 2nd, but rose to 23.5% on the 6th, even after presenting negative test results. The quarantine authorities explained, “There have been no cases of forged negative certificates, and this is likely due to the 2?3 day incubation period or limitations of the testing methods.” Since the 2nd, the cumulative positive rate among short-term foreign visitors from China is 21.7% (357 out of 1,643), meaning about one in five is testing positive.
From the 8th, the 8-day quarantine requirement for entering China has been lifted, so the number of Chinese traveling abroad is expected to increase. There are concerns that some may bypass domestic quarantine by entering through Southeast Asian countries where quarantine is not required for arrivals from China.
Variant issues also pose obstacles to indoor mask removal. As of the 31st of last month, the detection rate of the dominant domestic variant BA.5 decreased from 46.1% the previous week to 38.2%, while BN.1 rose from 24.4% to 33.3%. BQ.1, BQ.1.1, and BF.7 accounted for 7.0%, 5.5%, and 4.5%, respectively. There have also been 13 cases detected domestically of XBB.1.5, which is rapidly spreading in the United States, since its first detection on the 8th of last month. The absence of a clearly dominant variant and the simultaneous circulation of multiple variants means reinfections are more likely. The estimated reinfection rate steadily increased to 17.9% during the week of the 18th to 24th of last month.
"Daily Life Recovery Must Proceed... Medical Response Capacity Is Sufficient"
Experts say efforts to address new uncertainties must continue, but daily life recovery should proceed. Professor Jung Jae-hoon of Gachon University’s Department of Preventive Medicine said, “Despite China’s situation and the emergence of strong variants, efforts for daily life recovery must continue. Our country has already acquired a very high level of hybrid immunity, and medical response capacity and experience are sufficient. We are somewhat prepared.”
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