[Climate Management] ① The Vanished Winter... Completely Changed Map of Agricultural Specialties

If Carbon Emissions Are Not Reduced, Subtropicalization Cannot Be Prevented
By Around 2100, Winter Will Disappear in Southern Korean Peninsula
Reduction in Cultivation Areas for Apples, Highland Vegetables
Expansion of Subtropical Fruits Like Bananas and Gamgyul
Concerns Over Food Shortages Due to Pests, Extreme Weather, and More

Gangwon Province has become a major apple-producing region due to climate change. The photo shows an apple promotion event held in November 2020 in Hongcheon-gun, Gangwon Province, with a YouTuber. Photo by Hongcheon-gun Office

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] The phrase 'Daegu apples, Jeju tangerines' is now a thing of the past. Apple production is increasing in Gangwon Province, and tangerine production is rising along the southern coast. The subtropicalization caused by climate change is reshaping the agricultural specialty product map. This is not just about the shift in major agricultural production areas. The ripple effects, including reduced productivity, quality degradation, and damage from pests and diseases due to abnormal weather, are significant concerns for food security.

Winter disappears in the southern Korean Peninsula

Due to rising temperatures and increased precipitation, the entire Korean Peninsula is becoming subtropical. At least the southern part of the peninsula is losing its winter season and is no longer a temperate climate zone. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) projected at the end of last year that if carbon emissions are not reduced, some southern provinces and cities will completely lose their winters by the late 21st century. The KMA forecasts that the annual average temperature across 17 provinces and cities, currently between 10.5°C and 16.1°C, will rise by about 2.2°C to 6.7°C by 2081?2100 if carbon emissions are not curtailed. Annual precipitation, currently ranging from 1093.1mm to 1758.5mm depending on the region, is expected to increase by up to 378.8mm (Jeju Island).

Extreme weather events will also become more frequent. Heatwaves currently occur on average 4.8 to 32.4 days annually across the 17 provinces and cities, but without emission reductions, this could increase by 11.6 to 96.7 days by the late 21st century. Tropical nights will rise from the current 2.2 to 22.5 days to approximately 11.4 to 84.8 days. Conversely, cold waves and frost days will decrease. Cold waves currently occur 0 to 21.9 days annually, but in the future, they may decrease by up to 19.3 days (minimum 0 days). Frost days, currently between 10.1 and 123.7 days, are expected to reduce by 7.3 to 67.0 days. Maximum daily precipitation and heavy rainfall days are also projected to increase significantly. Maximum daily precipitation could increase by 65.3mm to 94.4mm, and heavy rainfall days could rise by 0.1 to 1.9 days. A KMA climate change monitoring official explained, "Spring is starting earlier, summers are getting longer, and winters are shortening," adding, "By around 2100, under a high-carbon scenario, summer in Gangwon Province and Jeju Island will lengthen by 82 days compared to the current 81 and 129 days respectively, and eight provinces including Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and Jeju will lose their winters entirely."

Regional specialty products have changed

Subtropicalization across the Korean Peninsula is causing the latitudinal range suitable for cultivating agricultural specialty products to shift northward. The most representative examples are apples and highland cabbage. Kim Myung-hyun, team leader of the New Agricultural Climate Change Response Project Support Team at the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Rural Development Administration, stated, "The cultivation area of apples, which grow well in cool places, decreased by about 10,000 hectares from 43,000 hectares in 1982 to 32,000 hectares in 2007." Currently, the cultivation limit for apples has risen to Pocheon, and it is projected that after 2090, apples will barely be cultivable only in the high-altitude areas of Gangwon Province. The cultivation scale of highland vegetables (radish and cabbage) has also significantly decreased. Nationwide, highland radish cultivation dropped from 0.40 hectares in 2001 to 0.23 hectares in 2019, and highland cabbage from 10.2 hectares to 0.50 hectares during the same period. Potatoes, primarily produced in Gangwon Province, are expected to be cultivable only in the semi-highland areas around Daegwallyeong after 2050. Meanwhile, tangerines and Hallabong, previously cultivated only in Jeju Island, are now being harvested in Jeonbuk's Gimje and Iksan, and Gyeongnam's Gimhae.

Fig cultivation, once centered in Jeonnam, has shifted northward to Chungju in Chungbuk, and grape cultivation has extended as far as Yeongwol in Gangwon Province. For garlic, the cultivation area suitable for warm-region varieties (Nanji-type) is expected to increase by 960% after the 2090s, while the cold-region varieties (Hanji-type) will decrease by 92%. This phenomenon has accelerated recently. Kim explained, "For every 1°C rise in temperature in Korea, the suitable cultivation area for crops shifts northward by 97 km," adding, "Ginseng, which was once cultivated in Geumsan, Chungnam, has been grown in Hongcheon, Hoengseong, and Chuncheon in Gangwon Province since the mid-1990s. Similarly, apple cultivation, which was mainly in Gyeongbuk in the 1970s, has moved north to Gangwon Province, where the cultivation area expanded from 477 hectares in 2011 to 2,000 hectares in 2020."

Chinese 'Juhongnalgae Flower Cicada'.

Leads to food security crisis

The spread of new pests, diseases, and weeds due to climate change is also a major problem. The rice stripe leaf blight, which used to occur locally, has now spread nationwide. Tropical pests such as the tropical armyworm, brown-winged cicadellid, spotted lanternfly, and American cockroach have increased, causing significant damage to farms. The Asian giant hornet, native to Southeast Asia, attacks honeybees, causing annual damages worth approximately 170 billion KRW. The invasive weed, ragweed, introduced from Europe, is expanding its range northward from Jeju Island, and by the 2050s, it is expected to spread 1127% more than currently.

Extreme climate conditions are also causing declines in agricultural and livestock yields and quality. Rice affected by high and low temperatures, heavy rain, and insufficient sunlight has more empty grains and lower quality, leading to reduced production. If climate change continues unabated, South Korea's rice production could decrease by up to 72.5% around 2090. Livestock such as cattle, pigs, and chickens are increasingly exposed to risks including infectious diseases, poor growth, reduced milk production, lower fertility, and mortality.

Kim emphasized, "These crops are closely related to people's livelihoods and are suited to cool climates, so future temperature rises will cause a sharp decline in their cultivation areas," adding, "Farmers need to adapt and change their crops, and at the national level, continuous development of new varieties and cultivation methods that can adapt to climate change must be prepared."