[Exclusive] Significant Enhancement of US-ROK Joint Training Field Exercises... Scheduled for March Next Year

From March 13 for Two Weeks...Significantly Increased Scale and Events of Outdoor Practical Training
Possibility of Launch After New Weapon Unveiling Amid North Korea's Military Parade Preparations

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] South Korea and the United States have decided to conduct their joint military exercises from March 13 next year. In this joint exercise, the outdoor field training, which had been scaled down due to COVID-19, will be reinforced again, raising concerns that North Korea might use this as a pretext for provocations.

According to military officials on the 26th, the South Korea-U.S. military authorities have decided to conduct the joint exercise (FS·Freedom Shield) from March 13 to 25 next year. The exercise will be divided into two parts: Part 1 (March 13-17) and Part 2 (March 20-24).

Field training will be significantly strengthened in next year’s exercise. Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop announced at the All-Army Senior Commanders Meeting held on the 21st that the scale and types of outdoor field training linked to the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises will be expanded. Starting with the Ssangryong joint amphibious landing exercise involving the South Korean and U.S. Marine Corps, joint scientific combat training, joint attack helicopter firing exercises, and joint maritime patrol operations will be conducted.

The Moon Jae-in administration had scaled down field training to battalion-level exercises in each military branch, citing COVID-19 and inter-Korean relations. In next year’s FS joint exercise, a four-star general from the South Korean military will command the Future Combined Command and complete the second phase of the three-stage evaluation of operational capability for the wartime operational control transfer, known as Full Operational Capability (FOC).

However, it seems difficult to apply the newly developed ‘Operation Plan (OPLAN) 2022’?created to respond to North Korea’s tactical nuclear weapon threats?to the exercise. This is because the plan needs to be operated and supplemented through computer simulation war games until this month, followed by final approval between South Korea and the U.S., with the draft expected to be ready only by April next year.

As South Korea and the U.S. strengthen joint exercises from next year, North Korea is expected to escalate the level of military provocations. There is a possibility that North Korea will unveil a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) equipped with an underwater solid engine at the 75th anniversary military parade commemorating the founding of the Korean People's Army on February 8 next year. Currently, it is understood that about 12,000 troops have gathered at the parade training ground north of Mirim Airfield in Pyongyang for the parade. After the weather improves, the likelihood of an SLBM launch is high.

There is also a high possibility of additional provocations in April, when North Korea has announced it will complete preparations for its first military reconnaissance satellite. Shin Jong-woo, Secretary-General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), said, "After next year’s military parade, North Korea could conduct conventional military provocations in the border area, as well as launch intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) aimed at the United States."