Moldova: "Russia to Invade in the First Half of Next Year... Possibly as Early as January"

"Attempting to Create a Connection Route with Transnistria"
About 10,000 Ground Troops, Fighter Jets Sold... Cannot Hold Even a Day

[Image source=Woodrow Wilson Center]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The Moldovan government, neighboring Ukraine, has forecast a high possibility of a Russian military invasion early next year. It is analyzed that Russia will break through the southern front of Ukraine by connecting the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova with the occupied territories in Ukraine.

The Moldovan people are increasingly confused amid fears of an escalation. Known as one of the poorest countries in Eastern Europe, Moldova has a standing army of just over 10,000 troops, and most of its main fighter jets have been sold overseas due to financial difficulties. There are concerns that it would be difficult to hold out even for a day or two in the event of a Russian invasion.

Moldovan Intelligence and Security Service Chief: "Russia to Invade as Early as January or as Late as April"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to the Associated Press on the 19th (local time), Alexandru Musteata, head of Moldova's Intelligence and Security Service (SIS), said in an interview with local TVR, "It is certain that Russia will launch a new offensive toward Moldovan territory," adding, "The question is when this will happen?whether the invasion will occur as early as January or February, that is, early next year, or a little later in March or April."

He continued, "The Russian military is trying to open a corridor connecting Transnistria and the occupied territories within Ukraine," emphasizing, "Russia aims to annex these areas, which presents a real and very high risk."

Following these remarks, fears of escalation have spread within Moldova, intensifying the residents' fear of war. Musteata issued a statement shortly after clarifying, "The situation in the Transnistria region is stable," but according to the AP, the public's fear has not easily subsided.

Transnistria, located in the eastern border area of Moldova, separated from Moldova during the civil war in 1992, one year after the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, but it is not officially recognized as a state. Currently, about 1,500 Russian troops are stationed there under the guise of peacekeepers. Moldova fears that if a Russian invasion begins, Transnistria will be immediately annexed by Russia.

Moldova Unarmed Due to Financial Difficulties... Most Main Fighter Jets Sold Overseas

The Soviet-made Mig-29 fighter jet operated by the Moldovan military, purchased in 1997 for weapons research on adversary countries by the United States [Image source= U.S. Department of Defense]

The reason why fear of a Russian invasion is even greater inside and outside Moldova is that, unlike Ukraine, Moldova does not have the military strength to withstand a Russian invasion.

According to the British BBC, Moldova, known as the poorest country in Eastern Europe with a population of about 2.6 million, has a combined army and air force of just over 10,000 personnel. Shortly after gaining independence in the 1990s, Moldova possessed about 30 MiG-29 fighter jets from the former Soviet Union as its main fighters, but due to financial difficulties, most were sold abroad.

Since the U.S. government purchased the MiG-29 fighters in 1997 for research on adversary nations' weapons, Moldova no longer operates them. Including all reserve forces, the ground forces number about 70,000, so if Russia launches a large-scale invasion across Moldova, it is expected to be difficult to defend for more than a day or two.