[Reading Science] China: 1 Million People to Die Within Months Due to COVID-19

Introduction to Analysis Results of Recent Research Papers Published in the International Academic Journal Nature

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] Following the recent relaxation of the Chinese government's 'Zero COVID Policy,' the spread of infections has become alarming, with projections indicating that over one million people in China could die from COVID-19 infections within the next few months.

According to the international academic journal Nature on the 20th, a research team from the University of Hong Kong published a study on the 14th predicting such a scenario based on the recent trends of COVID-19 infection spread in Hong Kong and Shanghai. The team first predicted that if infections rapidly spread due to the easing of China's COVID-19 prevention regulations, a shortage of hospital beds would occur, resulting in over one million deaths in the coming weeks. This predicted death toll only accounts for direct deaths caused by COVID-19. It does not include excess deaths from other diseases where patients could not receive timely treatment due to COVID-19.

The research team further analyzed that if about 85% of China's population receives a fourth vaccine dose using a different type of vaccine than the initially distributed one, it could control the spread of infections and reduce the number of severe cases and deaths. They also pointed out that increasing antiviral medication administration to vulnerable groups such as those aged 60 and above or patients with underlying conditions could reduce the maximum death toll by up to 35%. Professor James Trauer of Monash University in Australia emphasized, "It is very important to maximize vaccination rates as much as possible before COVID-19 spreads nationwide."

Earlier, on the 13th, the Chinese government mandated a fourth vaccine dose using a different vaccine instead of the initially distributed inactivated vaccine, which was ineffective and powerless against variants, for the elderly aged 60 and above and vulnerable groups. However, so far, only 70% of the 260 million people aged 60 and above and 40% of those aged 80 and above have completed the third dose.

There are even worse predictions. Using the COVID-19 Impact Assessment and Projection program developed by the University of Washington in the United States, calculations showed that at least 500,000 people could die from COVID-19 in China by April next year, and over 1.6 million by the end of next year. The model concludes that the average daily death toll could soar to around 9,000 by the end of March at the earliest. However, if Chinese authorities take appropriate measures when the death rate exceeds a certain threshold between now and April next year, the total number of victims could be drastically reduced to around 290,000. Suggested measures include re-strengthening prevention regulations, tightening the reins on third and fourth vaccine doses, and increasing antiviral treatment prescriptions for high-risk groups. Additionally, widespread mask-wearing could reduce the death toll to about 230,000.

Researcher Ewan Cameron of the Telethon Kids Institute in Australia explained, "These two study results provide similar death toll projections and predictions of the outcomes of health authorities' interventions," adding, "It means that herd immunity will only be achieved after large-scale, uncontrollable virus transmission occurs nationwide in China."