SCMP "'Post-Putin' Era Will Accelerate... Serious Harm to China"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Yujin Cho] Amid worsening military conditions for Russian forces and rumors of Russian President Vladimir Putin fleeing to South America, claims have emerged that Russia's decline and the resulting 'post-Putin' era could arrive sooner than expected.

According to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP), at an annual conference hosted by China's state-run Global Times on the 17th, international relations experts pointed out that the possibility of a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war is decreasing and the threat of nuclear conflict is increasing.

Zhu Feng, director of the Institute of International Relations at Nanjing University, stated, "The prolongation of the Ukraine war and Russia's decline are inevitable, and the risk of nuclear conflict is also increasing," adding, "The possibility of a prolonged war is the greatest strategic challenge and a grim uncertainty facing the world today."

He further expressed concern, saying, "There are worries about the early arrival of the post-Putin era and whether this will mean Russia will compete more intensely with the West or become more Westernized," and added, "This would be seriously detrimental to China and pose a major challenge to the strategic partnership with Russia."

Wu Dahui, deputy director of the Russia Research Institute at Tsinghua University, also noted that Russia's influence over Central Asia and its economic power, as well as its advantage in the Ukraine war, have clearly weakened, stating, "The war will continue and expand."

Wu pointed out that if President Vladimir Putin holds the next presidential election, scheduled for 2024, early next year, it will be important to watch who the potential candidates are that Putin might hand power over to.

He added, "Regardless of who becomes Russia's leader, there is no need to strengthen China-Russia relations into an alliance," and argued, "We should take this opportunity to make China-Russia relations more pragmatic."

Additionally, Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, said that even if there is little progress toward a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine war, China should demand peace, stating, "We must clearly send the message that 'we understand Russia's concerns but oppose waging war to address those concerns.'"

These remarks from Chinese scholars differ from the Chinese government's initial stance on the Ukraine war. They can be interpreted as voices urging not to provoke greater conflict with the West by strengthening cooperation with Russia amid Russia's defensive position, but rather to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy.

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies, rumors about President Putin's personal safety have surfaced as he has canceled a series of year-end events. Following his absence from the dialogue with the people held on the 12th, and the reported cancellations of his attendance at a year-end friendly ice hockey game and the early next year's parliamentary policy speech, speculation has arisen that he is preparing an "Ark" plan to escape to South American countries such as Argentina and Venezuela in case of failure in the war.

In response to the spread of rumors about his personal safety, the Russian presidential office released a video showing President Putin visiting a military command and holding a meeting, but some analysts suggest that the video was likely pre-recorded in preparation for his possible absence.