Messi vs Mbappe Clash of Eras... '52 to 47' Argentina Has Higher Winning Probability

Mbappe vs Messi... Clash of Old and New Strikers
Golden Ball and Golden Boot to be Decided in Final at Midnight on the 19th

Lionel Messi of Argentina celebrating after scoring the opening and winning goal against Croatia in the 2022 Qatar World Cup semifinal.

[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Lee Gyehwa] On the morning of the 15th (Korean time), in the 2022 FIFA Qatar World Cup semifinal held at Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor, Qatar, France defeated Morocco 2-0 to advance to the final, where they will compete for the championship against Argentina.

Argentina and France will play the World Cup final on the 19th at midnight at Lusail Stadium in Qatar. Both teams have won the World Cup twice each. Now, with just one step away, they will each aim for their third overall World Cup victory. This is the first time the two teams will face each other in a final.

◆ 'Mbappe vs Messi' The Clash of the Century... The Fate of the Golden Ball and Golden Boot

Over the past decade, Argentina's Lionel Messi (35), who has reigned as the best forward, and France's Kylian Mbappe (24, both from Paris Saint-Germain, PSG), regarded as the new generation striker, will face off head-to-head. Messi is aiming for his first World Cup victory in this tournament, while Mbappe is aiming for his second.

The outcome of the final will also decide the fate of these two players. Messi and Mbappe are tied as the top scorers of the tournament with 5 goals each. The player who scores the sixth goal in the final is highly likely to take home both the Golden Boot (top scorer) and the championship trophy. The Golden Ball, awarded to the tournament's Most Valuable Player (MVP), has also been narrowed down to a contest between these two players.

French player Mbappe is celebrating after scoring the team's third goal and his second goal in the round of 16 match against Poland. Photo by Yonhap News

◆ Data and Sports Industry Slightly Adjust Winning Probabilities After Final Matchup Announced

After the final matchup was confirmed, experts slightly increased Argentina's chances of winning. On the 15th, football statistics specialist media 'Opta' estimated Argentina's winning probability at 52.79%, about 5 percentage points higher than France's 47.21%.

U.S. data specialist company 'FiveThirtyEight (538)' also projected Argentina's winning probability at 53% and France's at 47%. When the World Cup semifinal bracket was set on the 11th, FiveThirtyEight had estimated Argentina's winning probability at 37% and France's at 35%. At that time, both teams' chances were in the 30% range, with only a 2 percentage point difference, indicating nearly equal levels.

Previously, the two teams have faced each other three times in the World Cup finals. The head-to-head record is 2 wins for Argentina and 1 win for France. France's most recent victory was a 4-3 win against Argentina in the Round of 16 at the 2018 Russia World Cup.