Rebound with Rising Resurgence... Daily New Cases Soar to 86,000
Winter '3-Mil Environment' Increase Combined with Spread of New Variant
[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] The number of new COVID-19 cases has risen again, reaching the highest level in 14 weeks. Although health authorities planned to begin discussions on lifting the indoor mask mandate starting the 15th, the decision to lift the mandate is likely to be postponed.
According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 14th, as of midnight the previous day, the number of new COVID-19 cases was 86,852, the highest figure in 90 days since September 14 (93,949 cases).
The winter resurgence that began at the end of October showed an increasing trend until mid-November, then somewhat decreased or plateaued until early this month. However, since the 5th, the number of cases has increased again compared to the previous week, indicating signs of renewed spread. As of the 14th, the average daily number of cases over the past week was 61,750, an increase of 7,811 (14.5%) compared to the previous week’s period (November 30 to December 6), which was 53,939.
Severe COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to occur steadily. On this day, the number of critically ill patients increased by 18 from the previous day to 460, maintaining the 400-level for 25 consecutive days since November 19. The number of deaths was 29, one less than the previous day, but considering that daily deaths had been occurring at 40 to 50 recently, this decrease is likely temporary. As of the previous day, the nationwide ICU bed occupancy rate was 34.7% out of 1,639 beds, and the occupancy rate for moderate-severity beds was 23.8%.
The additional COVID-19 vaccination rate for the winter season, which the government strongly recommends, remains low. As of midnight on this day, the additional vaccination rate for the winter season was 25.4% for those aged 60 and older, 39.6% for residents of infection-vulnerable facilities, and 21% for immunocompromised individuals. The cumulative vaccination rate for those aged 18 and older was only 9.9%, not yet reaching 10%.
Newly emerging variant viruses are also variables in the spread of the epidemic. Until early last month, the BA.5 variant accounted for 81.1% of cases, but by the end of November, it had decreased to 67.8%, while the BQ.1.1 and BN.1 variants rose to 6.0% and 13.2%, respectively. Additionally, with the winter cold creating '3밀 (mil-pae, mil-jip, mil-jeop)' environments (closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings) and increased year-end gatherings, there are concerns that confirmed cases will rise further.
Health authorities plan to hold a public expert forum on the 15th to establish criteria for lifting the indoor mask mandate and to announce a roadmap within the year after gathering opinions from the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee on the 26th.
Previously, the government announced that indoor mask-wearing would be shifted to a recommendation and voluntary basis, but mandatory mask-wearing would be maintained in essential facilities frequently used by high-risk groups. The timing of lifting the mandate will be determined by considering factors such as the number of new cases, trends in severe and critical patients and deaths, and the capacity for epidemic response. Since these indicators remain unstable, the final decision to lift the mandate is likely to be postponed.
Experts agree that discussions to establish criteria for lifting the indoor mask mandate are necessary but express concerns that this could lead to a relaxation of vigilance toward epidemic control.
Professor Eom Jung-sik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University Gil Medical Center said, "The mere discussion of lifting the indoor mask mandate can send a message to many people that 'it is now okay not to wear masks,' and the recent increase in cases may not be unrelated to this." He added, "Given that the vaccination rate among high-risk groups aged 60 and older has not exceeded 30%, rather than lifting the mask mandate, the focus should be on how to increase vaccination rates among high-risk groups."
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