5-Year Growth to 20 Trillion Won
Increase Rate of Parts and Materials Purchases
China at 6.2%, Twice That of Korea
Mobile OLED Supply Chain Competitiveness
Impact on Finished Products Like TVs
[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] The market for flexible mobile OLED (organic light-emitting diode) components and materials used in foldable phones such as the Galaxy Z Flip4 and Folder4 is expected to grow to around 20 trillion KRW in five years. However, concerns are rising as China's component and material purchase growth rate is expected to be about twice that of Korea. Narrowly speaking, mobile OLED accounts for about 90% of this market, and broadly, it is considered a "base market" in the OLED industry’s transition from TV → mobile → tablet and laptop, making it a market that must not be missed, according to industry consensus.
According to a survey by market research firm UBI Research on the 13th, the total mobile device OLED components and materials market is expected to grow to $13.91 billion (approximately 17.284 trillion KRW) next year and $16.73 billion (21.928 trillion KRW) by 2027, with an average annual growth rate forecast of 4.6%. From 2025, the flexible OLED market, including foldable OLEDs, is expected to account for about 90% of the total mobile OLED market. The market size is projected to grow from $12.02 billion (approximately 15.75 trillion KRW) next year to $15.66 billion (approximately 20.516 trillion KRW) in 2027, with an expected annual growth rate of 7%.
Notably, the average annual growth rate of mobile OLED component and material purchases, where high-value-added flexible OLEDs have an absolute share, is significantly lagging behind China. China's growth rate is 6.2%, while Korea's is 3.2%, showing about a twofold difference. Korea is expected to grow from $7.5 billion (approximately 9.824 trillion KRW) next year to $8.79 billion (approximately 11.514 trillion KRW) in 2027, while China is projected to reach $7.94 billion (approximately 10.401 trillion KRW) in 2027, indicating that Korea cannot be complacent in terms of both growth rate and scale.
The materials for flexible OLEDs refer to liquids such as polyimide (PI), rather than the hard glass substrates mainly used in conventional rigid OLEDs. The thin-film encapsulation (TFE), a protective thin-film sealing material for OLED devices, is also crucial as an ultra-fine material that is only a fraction of the thickness of rigid glass encapsulation. Although PI and TFE are more expensive than traditional glass substrates and glass encapsulation, their flexible properties make them primarily used in premium (flagship) smartphones like foldable phones. As the share of flexible OLEDs for flagship phones is expected to increase in the mobile OLED market, replacing rigid OLEDs for mid- to low-end smartphones, the growth rate of material purchases in this sector can be interpreted as an indicator of "supply chain dominance."
According to the industry, mobile OLED is a battleground situated between the tablet and laptop OLED market, which is expected to grow significantly after 2024, and the existing TV OLED market. This is a point even LG, which holds technological leadership in TV OLEDs, acknowledges. LG Display stated during its Q3 earnings conference call on October 26, "While OLED penetration in mobile is as high as 40%, it is only 5% in TVs," adding, "We expect IT OLEDs to be similar to mobile devices and will focus on this area."
If China gains competitiveness in the mobile OLED supply chain, it could negatively impact set manufacturers (such as TV makers) as well. Considering that both set and component companies are struggling due to global consumer market contraction, price declines, and inventory increases, there is a growing call for drastic measures in the flexible mobile OLED sector. In this regard, the government designated four display industry technologies, including OLED, as part of the 15 "National Advanced Strategic Technology Fields" on the 4th of last month. However, no groundbreaking talent development plans, such as tax incentives under the Restriction of Special Taxation Act or semiconductor-style initiatives to train 150,000 professionals over 10 years, have been introduced.
Instead, on the 23rd of last month, the Display Materials Subcommittee, consisting of 18 private companies, made a rare request to the government for international research and development (R&D) support for foldable OLED materials for the first time in 32 years, highlighting the sluggish situation. The committee plans to pursue R&D collaboration on ultra-thin OLED encapsulation materials with Germany's Fraunhofer Institute.
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