"'Population Giants' Indonesia and Nigeria to Surpass South Korea's Economy by 2050"

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] A forecast has emerged that the global issues of low birth rates and aging populations will even overturn the economic rankings of countries. By 2050, while the economies of populous countries such as Indonesia, Nigeria, and Mexico are rapidly growing, South Korea is expected to fall outside the top 15 in global economic scale due to the effects of low birth rates and aging.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Goldman Sachs presented this analysis in its "Global Economic Outlook 2075" report released on the 6th (local time). Goldman Sachs stated, "Over the next 30 years, the weight of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to shift more towards Asia," predicting that the top five economies in 2050 will be China, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Germany.

Goldman Sachs viewed economic scale as directly linked to population issues. According to the report, the current global population growth rate of around 1% is expected to decline to nearly 0% by 2075. Unlike the low birth rate and aging trends in developed countries, developing countries such as Indonesia, Egypt, and Pakistan are expected to continue experiencing population growth, which will steadily increase their economic scale.

Accordingly, Goldman Sachs predicted that South Korea's economic scale, which ranks 12th this year as it did in 2000, will fall outside the top 15 by 2050. In 2050, China, currently the second-largest economy, is expected to surpass the United States to become number one, while Japan is projected to drop from 3rd to 6th place, and India is expected to rise from 5th to 3rd place.

(Source=Goldman Sachs Report)

Additionally, Indonesia is expected to rapidly grow into the world's 4th largest economy, and the economies of Egypt and Nigeria are projected to enter the top 15 globally.

Furthermore, by 2075, Nigeria's economy is expected to leap to 5th place worldwide, and Pakistan is forecasted to grow into the top 6. Egypt is also expected to rise from 12th place in 2050 to 7th, and the Philippines is projected to become the 14th largest economy globally by 2075.

On the other hand, Japan, which is also facing low birth rates and aging issues like South Korea, is expected to fall from 6th place in 2050 to 12th place in 2075 in terms of economic scale.

As low birth rates and aging accelerate in South Korea, its real GDP growth rate is expected to fall below Japan's from the 2050s, but the real GDP per capita in 2075 is projected to exceed $100,000, improving to levels comparable to France and Canada.