[Global Issue+] The 'Potato' Crop Failure That Led to the Impeachment of Peru's First Commoner President

Fertilizer Prices Soar After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Potato Planting Only 30% of Usual...Worsening Food Shortage

The recent image of former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo, who was ousted by impeachment in the legislature. [Image source=EPA·Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The political instability in Peru continues to deepen following the impeachment and ousting of former President Pedro Castillo. The entire country remains divided between pro- and anti-impeachment factions, prolonging the turmoil. After being arrested by the police immediately following his impeachment, former President Castillo announced his intention to seek asylum in Mexico, raising concerns about the possibility of prolonged unrest.

In particular, the root of this political instability lies in the poor potato harvest, which is Peru's staple food and a major source of nutrition, suggesting that the turmoil is unlikely to subside easily. Dina Boluarte, the newly appointed president who entered politics in 2018, is also expected to struggle to stabilize the current state of governance, leading to speculation about another potential change in administration.

◆ Impeached and Ousted After 16 Months in Office... "Will Seek Asylum in Mexico"

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

According to CNN on the 10th (local time), the day before, former President Castillo's lawyer met with Pablo Monroy, the Mexican ambassador to Peru, and submitted an application for Castillo to seek asylum in Mexico.

According to the letter of request released on Twitter by the Mexican Foreign Minister, the lawyer appealed for asylum approval, stating that former President Castillo is being persecuted. The lawyer wrote in the application, "Former President Castillo is subjected to baseless persecution by judicial authorities" and "He has been completely isolated for holding views different from those who control all state institutions."

Earlier, on the 7th, just before the impeachment vote in the Peruvian Congress, former President Castillo attempted to seek asylum by going to the Mexican embassy in Lima, but was abruptly arrested by the police immediately after the impeachment, thwarting his attempt. Within Peru, protests demanding Castillo's reinstatement have grown, raising concerns that his asylum in Mexico could further exacerbate political instability.

The Mexican government has expressed a positive stance toward Castillo's asylum request. President L?pez Obrador also strongly criticized the impeachment during a regular press conference the previous day, calling the Peruvian Congress's impeachment approval a "soft coup" by elite political groups shaking a legitimately formed government, and described Castillo as a victim of harassment and confrontation.

◆ Sharp Decline in Potato Production, Peru's Staple Food... Economic and Food Crises Worsen

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

However, the impeachment crisis in Peru was not simply a matter of the Congress and Cabinet turning against former President Castillo. The dominant analysis is that the poor potato harvest, Peru's staple food, significantly shook public sentiment.

According to the UK's Guardian, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February this year, Peru's potato planting has plummeted to about 30% of the previous year's level. The main reason is a sharp reduction in fertilizer supplies, which were primarily imported from Russia. Peru's dependence on Russian fertilizers is particularly high at 75%, and with the war causing a drastic drop in Russian fertilizer imports, fertilizer prices surged three to four times compared to the previous year, leading to a significant decrease in potato planting.

In October, former President Castillo ordered the Peruvian Navy to collect seabird guano from nearby islands as an alternative fertilizer supply. This guano fertilizer, while not inferior in quality to chemical fertilizers, accounts for only about 4-5% of total fertilizer demand, failing to curb fertilizer prices.

As a result, Peruvian farmers, who were a major support base for former President Castillo, turned their backs on his administration. Castillo was the first president in Peruvian history to emphasize his origins from a poor farming family rather than the elite bureaucratic class, making the farmers feel a greater sense of betrayal.

Subsequently, a series of corruption and scandal cases involving Castillo's close associates erupted within Peruvian politics, causing his approval rating to plummet below 10%. The supply chain crisis triggered by the Ukraine war has become a major example of how such issues can topple a national government.

◆ Political Newcomer President Boluarte... Uncertain Whether She Will Complete Remaining Term

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

There is a prevailing analysis that President Boluarte, who succeeded former President Castillo, will find it difficult to quell the current turmoil. She is a novice politician with only four years of political experience, who suddenly assumed the presidency without an independent political base, while pro- and anti-impeachment protests continue fiercely.

According to the UK's BBC, President Boluarte, a lawyer by profession, first entered Peruvian politics through the 2018 district mayoral election. She later entered national politics as the running mate of former President Castillo in the last presidential election.

In fact, she has lost all elections she has contested so far. She was defeated in the 2018 Lima Surquillo district mayoral election with less than 4% of the vote, and two years later, she also lost the congressional by-election with poor results. In other words, she rose to national leadership without any political support base.

As a result, there are predictions both inside and outside Peru that she may find it difficult to complete the remaining term scheduled until July 2026. Within Peruvian politics, voices are emerging that President Boluarte should shorten her term and hold early elections. Ultimately, it is expected that no matter who governs, overcoming political turmoil will be difficult until the economic and food crises are resolved.