China Lifts Zero-COVID Barrier... Estimated 1 Million Deaths This Winter

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and White House Chief Medical Advisor for COVID-19 response in the United States, warned that China's easing of COVID-19 prevention policies could lead to a large-scale outbreak and potentially create new variants. Global health experts have voiced concerns about the resurgence and urged the Chinese government to focus on vaccination and eliminate uncertainties regarding future responses.

Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and White House Chief Medical Advisor to the President
[Photo by AP News]

On the 7th (local time), Dr. Fauci stated at the Financial Times (FT)-hosted 'Global Boardroom' event, "If they open up without taking measures such as initiating or implementing pre-vaccination campaigns, there will certainly be an increase in infections related to the disease."

The Chinese government announced the day before a policy easing that allows asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 cases to self-isolate and abolishes the principle of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Regarding this, Dr. Fauci expressed concern that retreating from the 'zero-COVID' policy without proper preparation could put pressure on the national health system and lead to a large-scale outbreak.

Dr. Fauci predicted that if a large-scale COVID-19 outbreak occurs in China, it would create opportunities for new variants of the virus to emerge. He pointed out, "Every time the virus spreads extensively, it provides ample opportunities for mutations," adding, "When the virus mutates, it eventually creates new variants that can impact the rest of the world."

In particular, Dr. Fauci anticipated that the easing of lockdowns would expose elderly people in China to a risk of chain infections. This is because 85 million people aged 60 and above have not received the third vaccine dose that protects against the Omicron variant. He also emphasized that China should import mRNA vaccines from Western countries to increase vaccination rates and boost immunity.

Not only Dr. Fauci but also Western medical experts have expressed concerns about easing restrictions without sufficient vaccination. Asian macroeconomic consulting firm Wigram Capital Advisors estimated through model analysis that COVID-19 deaths in China could reach 1 million this winter.

Xi Qian, Associate Professor at Yale School of Public Health, expressed concern in an interview with CNN, saying, "The crisis is vaguely approaching. The timing is very bad," regarding the lifting of prevention measures in winter. William Schaffner, Professor of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University, said, "China will now have to endure a period of suffering due to severe illness, death, and pressure on the healthcare system."

However, Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Institute who has been analyzing COVID-19 trends, said at the FT event that while uncontrolled infection spread in China could lead to the emergence of new variant viruses, the probability is "very low."

Instead, Topol pointed out that if China continues to insist on using only domestic vaccines and ignores the highly effective vaccines developed in the West, the number of deaths could increase sharply, sharing the same opinion as other Western experts.

As concerns about COVID-19 resurgence grow, there are also calls to eliminate uncertainties about how the Chinese government will respond. Jin Dongyan, Professor of Virology at the University of Hong Kong, told the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP), "They have abandoned the zero-COVID policy but have not drawn a clear picture of what to do next. Public confusion is a significant problem. It is worse than the virus itself," emphasizing the need to communicate with the public on various issues such as when to reopen borders and how to prepare for future resurgences.