As the Match Approaches, Quarterfinal Probability Adjusted Upward... 14.41% → 15.99%

South Korea's Probability of Reaching the Top 4 is 6.43%... Winning Probability is 0.38%
Betting Sites Also See Higher Chances of Reaching the Quarterfinals Compared to Before

On the morning of the 6th at 4 a.m. (Korean time), the South Korean national soccer team players are training at the Al Egla training ground in Doha, Qatar, ahead of the round of 16 match against Brazil. Photo by AFP·Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyunjung] The UK-based sports data analysis company 'Opta' has raised the probability of the South Korean national football team, participating in the 2022 Qatar World Cup, defeating Brazil and advancing to the quarterfinals from 14.41% to 15.99%.

On the 2nd (local time), immediately after South Korea secured advancement to the round of 16, Opta estimated South Korea's probability of reaching the quarterfinals at 14.41%. This figure was only 0.63% higher than Australia's 13.78% chance of reaching the quarterfinals, ranking 15th lowest among the teams advancing to the round of 16.

However, on the 5th, Opta released new data raising South Korea's quarterfinal probability to 15.99%. This is an increase of 1.58 percentage points in just three days. According to Opta's calculations, South Korea's probability of reaching the semifinals is 6.43%, the finals 1.48%, and the ultimate World Cup victory 0.38%.

Brazil, which faces South Korea in the round of 16, has a 62.32% chance of reaching the semifinals, a 34.73% chance of reaching the finals, and a 20.61% chance of winning the championship, ranking first in all three probabilities among the teams in the round of 16.

Meanwhile, just before the Qatar World Cup began, Opta had analyzed South Korea's chance of advancing to the round of 16 at 8.2%. According to Opta's forecast at that time, South Korea had a 9.4% chance of finishing first in Group H and a 19.7% chance of finishing second. Opta predicted that Portugal and Uruguay were the most likely to advance to the round of 16 as the first and second place teams in Group H, where South Korea is placed.

Overseas betting sites also share a more positive view of South Korea's chances of reaching the quarterfinals compared to before. Sports data startup SportsBivas analyzed the odds movements of overseas bookmakers and found that South Korea's probability of reaching the quarterfinals rose by 3.2 percentage points from 12% to 15.2%. According to SportsBivas, South Korea's probability of defeating Brazil in regular time is 7.3%, winning in extra time is 1.8%, and winning in a penalty shootout is 6.1%.

Regarding the reason for the increase in South Korea's quarterfinal probability, SportsBivas explained, "Brazil will be without Alex Telles (Sevilla) and Gabriel Jesus (Arsenal) due to injuries, while South Korea is expected to have Kim Minjae return, naturally increasing South Korea's chances of reaching the quarterfinals." Meanwhile, the company estimates Japan's probability of reaching the quarterfinals at 40%, facing Croatia in the round of 16, and the possibility of a Korea-Japan match in the quarterfinals at 6%.