Gartner Predicts Semiconductor 'Contraction' Next Year... July Forecast Downgraded

Global Semiconductor Market Sales to Reach $496 Billion Next Year
Expected 3.6% Decrease Compared to This Year

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Pyeonghwa] Market research firm Gartner has forecasted negative growth for the global semiconductor market next year. It lowered its July forecast, anticipating a downturn centered on memory semiconductors due to worsening external economic conditions.

On the 29th, Gartner predicted that the global semiconductor market revenue next year will be $496 billion, a 3.6% decrease compared to this year ($618 billion). This is a 20.40% downward revision from the July forecast of $623.1 billion.

Gartner expects that the sluggish market conditions, which began in earnest this year due to weak demand, increased inventory, and price declines caused by deteriorating external economic factors, will continue into next year. In particular, the memory market, including DRAM and NAND flash, which are highly sensitive to economic fluctuations, is expected to be hit hard.

The memory market revenue next year is expected to decrease by 16.2% compared to this year. Specifically, the DRAM market is projected to generate $74.2 billion in sales, down 18% from this year, while the NAND market is expected to record $59.4 billion in sales, a 13.7% decline.

However, the server market is analyzed to maintain relatively steady demand. Richard Gordon, Vice President of Gartner, stated, "As the global economy rapidly deteriorates and consumer demand (for IT devices, etc.) decreases, we expect a negative impact on the semiconductor market next year," but also said, "the industrial, telecommunications infrastructure, and data center markets will be less affected."