The Peak Initially Expected in Late November to Early December May Come Sooner
Severe Cases Up 14.3% and Deaths Up 41.8% in the 3rd Week of November
On the morning of the 21st, citizens visiting the COVID-19 screening clinic at Nowon-gu Public Health Center in Seoul are receiving guidance from medical staff. [Image source=Yonhap News]
[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] As the increase in new COVID-19 cases slows down, there is a forecast that this winter's resurgence peak will come earlier than expected and be somewhat smaller in scale. Reflecting this view, the quarantine authorities have shortened the interval for additional vaccine doses from the existing 120 days to 90 days and are encouraging people to get vaccinated promptly.
On the 23rd, the Central Disease Control Headquarters announced that they would shorten the interval for the updated vaccine shots, citing expert advice that the peak of the winter epidemic could occur earlier than previously predicted.
Previously, the government had anticipated that the daily number of confirmed cases could reach up to 200,000 at the peak of this winter's resurgence. Regarding the timing, experts analyzed that it could be as early as the end of this month or the beginning of next month.
However, as the recent daily new cases have remained between 50,000 and 70,000, there has been speculation that the peak might be earlier than expected. From the 18th for four days, the number of new cases decreased compared to the previous week. During this period, a research team from the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences predicted that the number of new cases at the end of this month would be similar to or slightly higher than the mid-month figures from two weeks prior, remaining in the 50,000 to 70,000 range.
There are also expert opinions that the epidemic has already entered its peak phase this week. Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine recently stated on Facebook, "Although there are many uncertainties, I judge that this week is the peak phase of the 7th wave," adding, "The number of severe and critical patients is estimated to be around 600 to 700 at the peak."
There is also a diagnosis that the official number of confirmed cases may be smaller due to many hidden infections avoiding diagnostic tests. Professor Baek Soon-young, Emeritus Professor at the Catholic University College of Medicine, said, "So far, about 26 million people have been infected with COVID-19, and the number of hidden infections who have not undergone diagnostic testing is generally estimated to be around 10 million," adding, "Looking at the recent trend of new cases, the peak will be around 100,000, about half of the government's predicted 200,000 cases per day."
The quarantine authorities say that while "the situation needs to be monitored further," they are cautious about the increasing trend in severe and critical patients and deaths. According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, during the third week of November (13th?19th), the average daily number of severe and critical patients hospitalized increased by 14.3% from the previous week to 399, and the average daily number of new deaths rose by 41.8% to 53.
Baek Kyung-ran, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (Director of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency), responded to a question about whether regular COVID-19 vaccinations will be necessary in the future by saying, "I think the vaccination interval and related policies should be determined based on the epidemic situation and changes in severity," adding, "If COVID-19 becomes a predictable seasonal disease like influenza, it might be included in regular vaccinations."
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