[Reading Science] Is Artificial Intelligence from Brazil, Mathematical Models from Belgium?

2022 Qatar World Cup Winner Predictions Diverge

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] Is it Brazil, ranked number one in the world, or Belgium, closely chasing at number two? As the 2022 Qatar World Cup opened on the 21st, kicking off a grand football festival, scientific predictions about the champion country are divided. Artificial Intelligence (AI) selected Brazil, while mathematical models chose Belgium as the most likely winners. Which of these, AI or the mathematical model, will accurately predict the winning country, surpassing the 'legendary' octopus?

According to the international academic journal Nature on the 22nd (local time), British statisticians from Oxford University used a mathematical model called the 'Double Poisson,' which evaluates each team's offensive and defensive strengths based on past match results, to predict the Qatar World Cup winner. Belgium ranked first with a 13.88% probability. Brazil followed closely in second place with 13.51%, France was third with 12.11%, Argentina fourth with 11.52%, and the Netherlands fifth with 9.65%. The subsequent rankings were Germany (7.24%), Spain (6.37%), Switzerland (5.29%), Portugal (3.78%), Uruguay (3.36%), Denmark (3.17%), England (2.56%), Poland (2.33%), Croatia (1.46%), and Mexico (0.67%). South Korea was not included in the list of predicted winners announced up to 15th place.

The Double Poisson model gained fame for accurately predicting Italy's victory over England during 'Euro 2020' and correctly identifying six out of eight quarterfinalist countries, demonstrating its precise analytical capability.

However, AI's prediction differed. The UK's Alan Turing Institute announced on the same day that their AI simulation results pointed to Brazil as the country with the highest probability of winning the World Cup. Using the 'Dixon and Coles' football match result prediction model, which has been in use since 1997, the institute ran approximately 100,000 simulations. Brazil emerged as the winner about 25,000 times, representing a 25% probability. Belgium, Argentina, France, and England followed in that order. Alan Turing was a British mathematician and psychologist, regarded as the father of modern computer science.