6 Reasons Why Trump Is Bound to Struggle in the Presidential Election

[Asia Economy Reporter Yujin Cho] In U.S. political circles, many experts believe that former President Donald Trump, who is making his third presidential bid following 2016 and 2020, will fail in the 2024 presidential election. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a prominent Republican contender, secured a landslide victory for re-election in the midterm elections held on the 8th (local time), emerging as a strong rival to Trump. The 'DeSantis wave' is solidifying into a 'DeSantis dominance theory' as recent polls show him surpassing Trump in approval ratings. The British BBC summarized the reasons why Trump is likely to struggle in the upcoming presidential race, highlighting the risks he faces.

◇ 'Impeachment and Refusal to Accept Election Results' Disgrace...The Trap of the Past= When Trump first ran for president in 2016, he had no political experience. Compared to his competitors?such as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, sitting senators, and former governors, all representatives of 'Washington politics'?his career was notably modest. However, an unexpected outcome occurred. This weakness became a strength. Voters projected hope and expectations for new politics, distinct from Washington and the established political order, onto him, who had no political flaws or failures.

But the situation has changed now. Trump himself has significant missteps that overshadow his four-year achievements, such as tax cuts and judicial reforms. He performed poorly on key campaign promises like repealing Obamacare and infrastructure investment, and he carries the disgrace of two impeachments and refusal to accept election results. Regarding the initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic, he earned the notorious label of 'the worst president in U.S. history.'

◇ The Shadow of the January 6 Capitol Riot= Trump incited his supporters by claiming election fraud in 2020, leading them to attack the federal Capitol on January 6. The rioters used tear gas sprays to assault police, climbed over barriers to enter the Capitol, and broke windows. Voters will not forget that day when he incited the mob and broke the tradition of peaceful transfer of power. The 'Trump responsibility theory' that surfaced during the recent midterm elections also proves this. Republican lawmakers who fully supported Trump's refusal to accept the election results suffered defeats in the midterms.

◇The Blade of Investigative Authorities and Judiciary...Litigation Risks= Various investigations surrounding Trump are also hindering him. He is under investigation for allegedly pressuring Georgia's Secretary of State and others to overturn the election results. Additionally, New York prosecutors have filed a financial fraud lawsuit, columnist E. Jean Carroll has filed a defamation suit, and there are allegations that he took 3,000 presidential records and classified documents privately upon leaving the White House. Investigative authorities and the judiciary are targeting him. Most importantly, the federal investigation into his incitement of the mob to storm the Capitol poses the greatest risk to his candidacy.

◇ From Jeb Bush to Ron DeSantis...Stronger Rivals= The intra-party competitors Trump must face in the next presidential election are stronger than eight years ago. In 2016, Jeb Bush, former Florida governor and a leading contender, was essentially a 'paper tiger.' His support within the party was minimal. Moreover, fatigue with the Bush family, linked to the Iraq War, was a significant handicap for his campaign. Trump mocked Jeb Bush with harsh remarks and stigmatization, and Bush ultimately finished fourth in the primaries. However, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is different. He achieved an overwhelming re-election victory in the recent midterms and has secured a solid core base within the Republican Party. Meanwhile, Trump's position within the party is narrowing amid the midterm election responsibility debate.

◇ The Sadness of Low Approval Ratings= Around the midterm elections, Trump was defeated by DeSantis in the Republican presidential candidate approval ratings. Polling firm YouGov reported on the 13th that Governor DeSantis's support for the next presidential candidate reached 23%, surpassing Trump's 20% for the first time. Even within the Republican Party, DeSantis (41%) had higher support than Trump (39%). This marked a dramatic reversal from the poll conducted on the 5th, just before the midterms (Trump 44%, DeSantis 26%).

◇ Age Limit...The Second Oldest President in U.S. History= Born in 1946, Trump would be 78 years old upon inauguration if he wins the 2024 election. This is the same age as President Joe Biden when he entered the White House, making Trump the second oldest president in U.S. history. When Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19 during his term, CNN described it as "the most serious health threat to a sitting president in decades," emphasizing his age as a risk factor for complications. The New York Post also mocked his health issues in a brief article on the 16th, the day after Trump announced his 2024 presidential bid, stating, "His cholesterol levels are unknown, but his favorite food is a blackened steak with ketchup."