[Beijing Diary] Numbers Are Needed for Zero-COVID Quarantine Measures

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Kim Hyunjung] This is the third time that China’s quarantine issues have been the theme of the 'Beijing Diary.' If someone asks whether there is nothing else to write about besides quarantine, I would respond, "Quarantine accounts for 80% of life here." This is because quarantine determines the quality of life in Beijing, the scope of activities, the people you meet, and the content of conversations.

While the previous two columns raised issues about the political duality of quarantine, this time I intend to express frustrations about the normalized uncertainty. The biggest mistake of zero-COVID was planting a time bomb of uncertainty in everyone’s daily life. As soon as announcements were made to reduce quarantine days and relax airline management regulations, the stock market cheered, but the local time bombs still emit unpleasant noise everywhere.

An example is the Chinese government’s announcement two days ago on the 11th. When they announced the policy to shorten the quarantine period for overseas arrivals from 7 days of facility quarantine plus 3 days of self-quarantine (7+3) to 5+3, the Hong Kong Hang Seng H Index surged nearly 8%, eliciting cheers. However, for stakeholders, this news is only a half-hearted positive. This is because the authorities did not clearly specify when and to what extent this policy would be applied.

China’s 31 provinces classify risk levels based on the number of confirmed cases and manage the entry of outsiders according to differentiated policies and environments in each local government. In the capital Beijing, the final quarantine period can vary depending not only on whether one arrives via direct flight or through another city but also on the risk level of the first city of arrival. Among those who boarded flights from Korea to China after the 11th, no one around me received a definite answer about how many days the quarantine would last.

China has not precisely announced any plans on what criteria will be used to manage the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases going forward. On the 12th, the State Council’s joint COVID-19 response and quarantine control task force held a press conference, where a Hong Kong journalist asked, "Do the recent 20 quarantine-related measures in China mean complete liberalization in the near future?" and "What preparations are needed for full reopening?"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

The Chinese-style rhetoric, full of euphemisms and ambiguous expressions, was also demonstrated here. Lei Haichao, Deputy Director of the National Health Commission, responded to this question by saying, "Our country is a large nation with a population of 1.4 billion, many elderly people, and a relatively broad base of vulnerable groups. Due to unbalanced development, there are relatively large gaps between urban and rural areas and relatively insufficient medical and health service resources," then went on to say, "We have deeply realized that the achievements in epidemic prevention and control across regions demonstrate the Party’s leadership superiority and the advantages of the socialist system," which was an irrelevant statement. He continued, "We will continue to adhere to a work approach that pursues development while maintaining stability," and "We must build a strong medical and health service system that meets the requirements of the overall national security concept and adapts to the public health security situation." Reading between the lines, this answer can be interpreted as meaning, "Full reopening is not happening now, and we don’t know about the future."

Zero-COVID should not proceed like this. Uncertainty should be eliminated as much as can be quantified. Reasonable target points such as vaccination rates, mortality rates, and fatality rates should be assumed, or criteria for 'opening' should be actively presented by citing judgments from credible organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO). People under control should be able to gauge what will happen in the future by observing recent trends and changes. Even Beijing residents, who rarely voiced dissatisfaction with the Communist Party’s policies, began to curse when waiting times at COVID-19 testing sites on rainy evenings exceeded an hour. Resistance in the face of endless inconvenience may not end with just curses.