[US Midterm Elections] Impact on Foreign Policy?…Concerns Over Reduced Ukraine Support and Friction with Europe

Trump's Comeback Possibility... Concerns Over Revival of 'America First'
Hardline Stance on China Remains... Likely Continued Disinterest in North Korea Policy

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

With the Republican Party regaining the majority in the House of Representatives in the U.S. midterm elections, countries around the world are on high alert for potential changes in U.S. foreign policy. If the "America First" policy line from the previous Donald Trump administration is reinforced, foreign aid could be reduced, which would deal a significant blow to Ukraine and European countries currently confronting Russia.

Regarding Asia policy, both the Democratic and Republican parties are expected to maintain a bipartisan tough stance on China, continuing the existing diplomatic approach.

◆Concerns Over Reduction in Ukraine Support

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to the Associated Press on the 9th (local time), concerns about a reduction in support for Ukraine are spreading within and outside U.S. political circles following the Republican takeover of the House. This is because mainstream Republican lawmakers, led by Kevin McCarthy, the likely next Speaker of the House and current House Minority Leader, are expected to spearhead efforts to cut back aid to Ukraine.

Earlier, in an interview with CNN on the 7th, McCarthy stated, "We strongly support Ukraine and believe there must be responsibility moving forward, but indiscriminate support in the form of a 'blank check' is problematic." He emphasized, "We need to ensure that our support is going to where it is truly needed and that this can be publicly debated."

Republican supporters also oppose unlimited aid to Ukraine. In a poll released by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 3rd, 48% of voters supporting the Republican Party responded that the U.S. is spending too much on Ukraine. In contrast, only 6% of Republican supporters expressed this view in a poll conducted in March.

According to the U.S. political media outlet Politico, voices of concern about former President Donald Trump's political comeback are rising within and outside the European Union (EU) in relation to the U.S. midterm elections. Given the high dependence on U.S.-produced natural gas amid sanctions on Russia and the energy crisis, if Trump and the Republican Party strengthen their political dominance, diplomatic friction with the U.S. could increase.

Michael Link, Germany's Coordinator for Transatlantic Cooperation, told Politico, "Former President Trump, who emphasized America First, will negatively impact transatlantic diplomacy again." He added, "While the election results will not give full control to the Republicans, if U.S. foreign policy falls into many deadlocks and divisions, concerns among European countries confronting Russia will grow."

Meanwhile, there is also a sense of relief among some who expect that the Republicans will not fully control the Senate. If the Republicans control both chambers and Trump makes a political comeback in the 2024 presidential election, the America First diplomatic policy could once again pressure Europe.

◆"No Fundamental Change Expected in North Korea and China Policies"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

In Asia policy, including North Korea and China policies, bipartisan cooperation between the Democrats and Republicans is being maintained, so the current approach is expected to continue.

The U.S. think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) stated in a report that "the tough stance on China will be maintained after the midterm elections," explaining that "the confrontation with China, which was triggered by tariff issues during the previous Trump administration, has now expanded to include authoritarianism, human rights, supply chains, and the Taiwan issue."

According to CFR, negative public opinion toward China among Americans has been intensifying. Negative perceptions of China, which were around 26% in 2006, rose to 47% in 2017 and surged to 80% last year. CFR explained, "The Biden administration's tough policy on China has passed unanimously in both the House and Senate without significant opposition," adding, "Since most policymakers view the challenge from China seriously, there will be no fundamental change in China policy."

North Korea policy, which has been evaluated as having significantly declined in priority since the Biden administration took office, is also expected to see no major changes. Roberta Cohen, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights, pointed out in an interview with Voice of America (VOA), "Currently, there is no comprehensive North Korea policy within the Biden administration that covers politics, security, economy, humanitarian issues, and human rights." She added, "Although there is an emphasis on placing human rights at the center of diplomatic policy, opportunities to actively implement this commitment have not been created, and political interest is very lacking."