[US Midterm Elections] Presidential Election in 2 Years... Biden "Decision Early Next Year" vs Trump "Announcement as Scheduled on 15th"

President Joe Biden [Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] The U.S. November 8 midterm elections are shaking not only the balance of power in Congress but also the landscape of the 2024 presidential election, which is just two years away. Attention is focused on whether a 'return match' between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will take place, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis of the Republican Party is rapidly rising as a contender leveraging a successful reelection bid. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker of the Democratic Party has also revealed his presidential ambitions.

On the day after the midterm elections, the 9th (local time), President Biden held a press conference at the White House and said about his reelection bid, "Everyone hopes I will run again, but we will discuss it first." He added that regardless of when former President Trump announces his candidacy, he does not feel the need to rush his decision, saying, "I will probably make that decision early next year."

President Biden, who was once cornered by the so-called 'economic judgment theory,' has, contrary to initial predictions that both the House and Senate would be taken by the Republicans, avoided an early lame-duck crisis as the anticipated 'Red Wave' (Republican landslide) did not materialize. The theory within the Democratic Party that Biden could not win reelection, which had surfaced before the election, is also expected to subside.

In particular, the Democratic victory in the Pennsylvania Senate race, one of the most competitive battlegrounds, carries great symbolism. Local media including The New York Times (NYT) have flooded with evaluations such as "There was no Red Wave," and "Despite all unfavorable conditions for the Democrats, including the highest inflation in 40 years and an unpopular president, the Republicans only achieved wave-level results." U.S. voters, while handing the opposition Republican Party a judgment on the administration in this election, did not fully empower them. This is interpreted as a warning sent to the Republicans as well regarding issues such as abortion and democracy. Analysts also suggest that former President Trump's overt White House reentry intentions expressed through last-minute campaign rallies provoked the 'anti-Trump' Democratic base.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

For former President Trump, who had planned to officially announce his presidential candidacy on the 15th at Mar-a-Lago in Florida based on the midterm election's Red Wave, the below-expectation results inevitably caused setbacks. Despite the environment favoring a judgment against the administration, the Republicans failed to achieve a landslide victory, and voices are already raising questions about Trump’s responsibility for this.

However, in an interview with Fox News on the same day, former President Trump confirmed that the schedule for his presidential candidacy announcement on the 15th would not change. He said, "We had tremendous success (in this election)," and questioned, "Why should I change it?" In a post on Truth Social, he also self-assessed, "While somewhat disappointing in some respects, from my personal perspective, it is a very big victory." These remarks are interpreted as drawing a line against the responsibility claims directed at him while building public opinion that he was responsible for the relatively good performance, thereby adding justification for his presidential bid. Trump also denied CNN’s report that he shouted in anger over the election results prior to the Fox News interview.

The midterm elections also confirmed the rise of 'presidential hopefuls.' Within the Republican Party, Governor DeSantis is immediately mentioned as the 'number one alternative to Trump.' He solidified his reputation by securing reelection early with a double-digit margin the day before. Although he has not officially indicated his intention to run for president, hedge fund Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, who supports Republican political funds, publicly declared his support, rapidly building a base of supporters. Conservative media outlets controlled by media mogul Rupert Murdoch have also openly expressed their intention to back Governor DeSantis as the Republican candidate in the next presidential election.

Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida
[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Just before the midterm elections, former President Trump mocked Governor DeSantis as "Ron DeSanctimonious" and openly warned, "If he runs (for president), he could get hurt very badly." This is the background to the caution. On the same day, when President Biden was asked who he thought would be a more threatening competitor in the next presidential election between former President Trump and Governor DeSantis, he laughed it off, saying, "It will be fun to watch them fight."

On the Democratic side, attention should be paid to the actions of Governor Pritzker, who succeeded in reelection as the 'richest public official in America.' In Pritzker’s victory speech released the day before, he stated, "I am ready to face former President Donald Trump and his allies within a few years," fueling speculation about his presidential bid. The opposing gubernatorial candidate was not mentioned at all, while former President Trump and the Trump campaign slogan 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) were each mentioned twice. Regarding this, the Chicago Tribune interpreted, "With former President Trump expected to officially announce his 2024 presidential candidacy as early as next week and concerns emerging within the Democratic Party about President Biden’s reelection, there is no doubt that this speech was aimed at a national audience."